New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading In Most Key States [View all]

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New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading In Most Key States
Plenty of people seem ready to freak out, but the race remains as it was.
Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post 11/02/2016 09:31 pm ET

Yet Clinton is in a better place than Barack Obama was at this point in 2012. In the HuffPost Pollster chart, Obama widened his lead to just 1.5 percentage points over Mitt Romney nationally ― but that was good enough for Simon Jackman’s HuffPost model and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model to give Obama a 91 percent chance of winning. Obama’s odds in the states were good enough that he was predicted to get 332 electoral votes (which is what he got).

Clinton is currently about 6 points ahead of Trump in the HuffPost Pollster national chart, and our predictions give her 341 electoral votes. Assuming the polls haven’t become fundamentally more error-prone than in 2012, a 98 percent certainty of her election makes sense ― especially when compared with Obama’s 91 percent certainty with only a fraction of that lead.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/state-polls-clinton-leading_us_581a8098e4b08f9841ad3a03