Last edited Wed Nov 2, 2016, 02:34 PM - Edit history (1)
Prior to Comey, Nate Silver had Hilllary at 81%.
That 81% is the equivalent of a 9.5 point favorite in an NFL game. I am incorporating money line (straight up) relationship to the pointspread, based on charts and my 30+ years of experience.
So it's absurd to pretend there hasn't been a dramatic shift. If the odds plummeted on an NFL game from -9.5 to -4.5 in a few days, everybody in the wagering community would be scrambling to understand what happened. Or it could be very obvious. An injury to an elite quarterback replaced by a shaky backup could be worth 5 points adjustment in the spread, although normally it would be less than that.
On edit: Here is that NFL money line chart. It's a bit different than the one I use, but close enough after a quick online search. You'll notice that an edge of slightly above 4/1 (81%) equates to 9.5 point favoritism. Slightly above 3/1 (76%), which is where Nate moved the race after early Comey news drops matters to 7.5 point favoritism. Now the drop to 70%, which is slightly above 2/1, drops further. This is hardly linear. Losing 5 or 6% in a lower range is more significant. In my chart 70% is tight to 4.5 point favoritism. In the linked version it's closer to 5 point favoritism. I'll accept that. I researched win probability based on pointspread decades ago and came up with a homemade chart. Other versions may vary somewhat, but not significantly.
http://www.sportility.net/nfl/moneyline_points.html
There is juice on both sides. For a man to man price, which is what we're interested in, split the difference. For example, at -470 (470 to win 100) and +375 (100 to win 375) at 9.5 point favoritism, the no-juice middle would be slightly above 4/1 theoretical edge, which aligns with that 81% from Nate's site pre-Comey.
= new reply since forum marked as read