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Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:18 AM

Sorry Luntz, but it's not Il Douche Herr Gropenfuror that's the problem [View all]

Frank Luntz is still pushing the idea that this was a 'slam dunk' year for the Republicans
Yes, folks! A slam dunk. And it seemed so much a slam dunk too.
A slam dunk in the same sense that this 52-year old 5'8" person could slam dunk over LeBron James.
Slim... None... Slim Left Town

Trump is just the climax of this 30+ year show the Republicans have been running and this year wouldn't have been a slam dunk even if everyone left the court and gave the fictional Republican candidate a ladder to climb to drop the ball in the basket

Here's why. The numbers do not add up
For the most part, the Republicans have won about 22 to 24 states over the past decade-and-a-half (please note, most part. I realize Obama won NC and Indiana once). It's not a bad number of states, but here's the problem, when you remove Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana and Tennessee from the list, none of the other states have more than 9 electoral votes. Total EV 115
5 of those states (MT, WY, SD, ND, AK) have only 3. Idaho has 4 and Nebraska and West Virginia have 5.

Even if the Republicans were to win all 24 of those states, that's 206 EV

Let's say they hold all those states and win Iowa and Ohio (that's about as rosy a picture as they can get) 230 EVs

The Democrats have won CA, NY, NJ, IL, PA MI, WI, MN, WA, MA and MD in every election this century (4 to be exact).
Every one of those states has double-digit EV: Total 207. Pretty hefty number against your 115
Throw in Hawaii, Oregon, Colorado, NM, the entire northeast and DC that's 254
Now, only Florida, Virginia and Nevada are left
Nevada become irrelevant as it doesn't push either over the top

But if the Republican wins all 3, he has 281 EVs. That's 9 more than he needs to win. 3 states that voted Obama both times.
But, your guy has to win both Virginia and Florida to win
Unlikely at best

Even without Trump at the head of their ticket; Cruz, Kasich or Bush, would be a very tall order for them to win the White House and it would be by a very narrow margin at best.
Sorry, Mr. Luntz, with or without Trump, your party would get a slam dunk the same way you'd get one in a 1:1 vs Charles Barkley or Stephen Curry

For thirty years you catered to a dwindling demographic and now, you're in very deep trouble

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Reply Sorry Luntz, but it's not Il Douche Herr Gropenfuror that's the problem [View all]
rpannier Oct 2016 OP
UCmeNdc Oct 2016 #1
JHB Oct 2016 #2
spooky3 Oct 2016 #3
rpannier Oct 2016 #4
spooky3 Oct 2016 #8
Mr. Ected Oct 2016 #5
Thrill Oct 2016 #6
Gabi Hayes Oct 2016 #7