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Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
27. You forgot to average
Sun Sep 25, 2016, 09:28 AM
Sep 2016

Hillary did not have an 8 point lead in PA last week.

She is not leading by 3 this week.

It's always been 5.

Average. Or take the median. Never rely on a single data point.

Of course not. The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2016 #1
But it doesn't make any sense Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #2
A new PA poll came in from Muhlenberg College BadDog40 Sep 2016 #7
Nate did some consulting work for the GOP last month. Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #3
That is not correct (n/t) PJMcK Sep 2016 #14
This is a lie oberliner Sep 2016 #24
I have concluded that too... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #41
+1,000,000 Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #54
They added a poll that had Clinton up by 2 in PA. That's why there is a slight shift downward. SaschaHM Sep 2016 #4
No Need to Worry About Minute Shifts DarthDem Sep 2016 #5
I'm done with checking him. MFM008 Sep 2016 #6
closer poll than usual in PA Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #8
Is that just one poll or several? Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #9
1 poll Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #11
I sure hope so... Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #13
I find that so peculiar Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #10
It is Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #12
I sure hope that the jar doesn't have half white and half black -- I mean orange marbles! Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #15
if you knew the first thing about statistics, unblock Sep 2016 #51
Western PA is very conservative- they don't call it Pennsetucky bettyellen Sep 2016 #16
Yes, I know. Is that where the votes were from? Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #17
I'm pretty sure the statewide polls pick people spread throughout the state... bettyellen Sep 2016 #18
All of PA is not the same Kilgore Sep 2016 #30
Sorry Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #43
Washington Post just produced a bad national poll geek tragedy Sep 2016 #19
You shouldn't poll watch if it makes you nervous. LeftRant Sep 2016 #20
You shouldn't poll watch if it makes you nervous. LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #21
You forgot to average Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #27
That's right. LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #29
Indeed, they benefit from a close race. LeftRant Sep 2016 #22
Why do you post negative stuff about Hillary? Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #23
Bingo! Kaleva Sep 2016 #26
I remember posts sometimes. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #38
Good catch... abetterkid Sep 2016 #34
Exactly...so sick of it... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #39
Things often tighten like this oberliner Sep 2016 #25
Several bad polls today democrattotheend Sep 2016 #28
The odds of getting an out of sample poll are about 1/20 Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #32
You seem like a good person to ask ... Persondem Sep 2016 #35
I don't get it either Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #31
Chuck Todd was just talking about how Trump is doing worse among doc03 Sep 2016 #33
It doesn't make any sense to me either. LisaL Sep 2016 #36
That's what I am thinking democrattotheend Sep 2016 #37
So the polls are rigged to help Trump...just like in 2012. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #40
Turnout model based on 2004 democrattotheend Sep 2016 #42
I disagree with you completely Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #44
I do think turnout will be very low this year. The Democrats I know doc03 Sep 2016 #47
I would also like to add that 2012 was more like 2004 than this year despite Virginia. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #45
As a side note triron Sep 2016 #46
Ignore it and get BlueMTexpat Sep 2016 #48
I'm so sick of these 538 conspiracy theories. RAFisher Sep 2016 #49
His "details" are hand waves; his model is what I call social science "math"... Foggyhill Sep 2016 #53
This is purely a statistical model MyNameIsKhan Sep 2016 #50
It means the zombie apocalypse is about to occur La Lioness Priyanka Sep 2016 #52
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