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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: So what the h*ll does this mean??? Hillary is now down AGAIN on the 538 site...... [View all]Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)27. You forgot to average
Hillary did not have an 8 point lead in PA last week.
She is not leading by 3 this week.
It's always been 5.
Average. Or take the median. Never rely on a single data point.
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So what the h*ll does this mean??? Hillary is now down AGAIN on the 538 site...... [View all]
a kennedy
Sep 2016
OP
They added a poll that had Clinton up by 2 in PA. That's why there is a slight shift downward.
SaschaHM
Sep 2016
#4
I sure hope that the jar doesn't have half white and half black -- I mean orange marbles!
Farmgirl1961
Sep 2016
#15
I'm pretty sure the statewide polls pick people spread throughout the state...
bettyellen
Sep 2016
#18
I would also like to add that 2012 was more like 2004 than this year despite Virginia.
Demsrule86
Sep 2016
#45
His "details" are hand waves; his model is what I call social science "math"...
Foggyhill
Sep 2016
#53