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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Sam Wang called the elect... » Reply #3

Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:53 PM

3. QUITE something!

Further: 'Rove gave every appearance of genuinely believing that Romney would win. Similarly, Team Romney (and many pundits) thought that professional pollsters as a group were off base. This is a case of motivated reasoning: selective questioning of polls that they found disagreeable. It afflicted the whole right-wing media structure.

Do such biases ever help? What about analytical improvements, like the layers added at FiveThirtyEight? Today I report that by a quantitative measure of prediction error, we did as well in Presidential races as Nate Silver, and on close Senate races, we did substantially better Ė 10 out of 10, compared with his 8 out of 10. Letís drill into that a little. [Read more →]'

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Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 OP
RedSpartan Nov 2012 #1
Kablooie Nov 2012 #5
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #6
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #10
Cha Nov 2012 #2
LineNew Reply QUITE something!
elleng Nov 2012 #3
Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #4
deurbano Nov 2012 #7
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #9
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #8
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