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2016 Postmortem

In reply to the discussion: Why Hillary Will Win [View all]


(5,648 posts)
11. Wrong.....
Mon Sep 19, 2016, 11:14 PM
Sep 2016

Statistics do matter - in 2008 Nate Silver predicted the winner in every state except one. In 2012 he had a perfect record - 50 out of 50. Right now these are is correct, combined poll numbers for competitive states with their number of electoral votes (remember that Hillary once lead in all of these states):

Georgia 16 (Trump +5.1%)
Arizona 11 (Trump +4.2%)
Iowa 6 (Trump +2.5%)
Ohio 18 (Trump +1.2%)
North Carolina 15 (Trump +0.8%)
Florida 29 (Trump +0.4%)
Nevada 6 (Trump +0.3%)

Colorado 9 (Clinton +2.7%)
New Hampshire 4 (Clinton +2.7%)
Pennsylvania 20 (Clinton +3.4%)
Michigan 16 (Clinton +3.7%)
Wisconsin 10 (Clinton +3.8)
Virginia 10 (Clinton +4.6%)
Minnesota 10 (Clinton +5.1%)

With the states shown Hillary has 288 electoral votes - a 18 vote cushion. If the race stabilizes I like Hillary's chances. However, remember the consistent trend since the convention when Hillary was winning all of these states (many by 6% to 9%) and she had 389 electoral votes has been ever downward in the polls in every one of these competitive states. If that trend continues for much longer her lead will be in jeopardy. For instance if Trump overcomes her lead in Colorado and New Hampshire, her electoral vote total drops to 275 and she can't afford to lose even one more state.

So how you see this race depends a lot on whether you see the glass half empty or half full because I could make many of the same arguments the author is making. However this is where we disagree - he wrote:

Thus, I cannot see a “path” to a Trump victory. That hardly means it cannot happen – it can. Various services currently have her odds of winning in the 60-75% range, based on their mathematically-generated formulas. Statistically, that is probably about right. But I think, intuitively, that a better number, frankly, begins with a “9.”

Unfortunately, I do see a path for a Trump path - it's the debates. This is the most unpredictable encounter between two Presidential candidates in my memory and that goes back a long time. As usual, many of the voters haven't been paying close attention and the debates could sway their votes. Usually debates don't affect the polls much because the candidates are evenly matched and very well briefed as to what to expect.

This year with Trump being the very wild card, practically no one knows what to expect. You know that Hillary will be well prepared and very knowledgeable of the issues. But Trump is the master of the sound bytes and he can tell so many semi-believable lies in one minute that he defies on the spot fact checking. Will the moderators put up with that crap and not interrupt him or will they jump in and correct him on on the spot before he can tell another lie. A lot depends on moderators performance. a decisive victory by one candidate or the other could affect the preference enough vote move the pendulum in very close election like this one.

Look, given the current state of the race I think Hillary will win. And frankly I have a hard time believing that the American people will be taken by a fraud like Trump.

Why Hillary Will Win [View all] tgards79 Sep 2016 OP
how good vadermike Sep 2016 #1
Not at all impressed! CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #2
Follow the logic of the article tgards79 Sep 2016 #4
That is not cajons MO gabeana Sep 2016 #5
BS!!! CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #8
I'm thinking... tgards79 Sep 2016 #9
Wrong..... CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #11
You seem to be agreeing with BTRTN, not disagreeing. tgards79 Sep 2016 #12
The difference is BTRTN is saying "Hillary will win" CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #13
It is a logical argument tgards79 Sep 2016 #16
I guess that make sense if you ignore the fact.... CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #17
I didn't say I thought Trump will win CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #6
im not vadermike Sep 2016 #3
It is all we can do personally so it will have to be good enough CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #7
If you are worried about Hillary's odds on the election, read this... reggieandlee Sep 2016 #10
Because Trump is a criminal AND she will still be breathing. Destiny! Coyotl Sep 2016 #14
I'm still seeing a landslide ahead. My only concern is for the capture of oasis Sep 2016 #15
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