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2016 Postmortem

In reply to the discussion: Why Hillary Will Win [View all]

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
6. I didn't say I thought Trump will win
Mon Sep 19, 2016, 09:07 PM
Sep 2016

Only that his chances of winning have been increasing steady since the Democratic Convention and Hillary's have been steadily decreasing.

What the author sees as "Trump is at a high, Hillary at a low, and she is still ahead", others see a trend that could continue.

Regardless, this election cycle is at a turning point and I see three major factors which could affect the outcome:

1) Hillary has more funding as big contributors have been hesitant to invest in Trump given the campaign he has waged. Hillary has a much better ground game, especially in swing states.

2) Usually as elections get closer, people who early on say they will vote for 3rd party candidates began to see the futility of that course of action and come back to one of the major party candidates. Will that happen this time? Probably, but to what extent and which candidate will benefit is hard to predict. I suspect it will vary from state to state.

3) The debates - if Hillary were much further ahead, I would be less concerned. I am sure that Hillary will be very well prepared, but when someone lies as often as Trump does, he is difficult to manage. It like a team that plays hands on defense in basketball on the theory that the refs can't call every foul committed. In those games the refs have to call enough fouls to keep the game fair. Following that analogy the moderator in the debates has to be on his/her game and call out Trump on his lies. If the moderator doesn't keep in check Hillary will certainly challenge his lies, but with much of the audience across the nation that hasn't been paying close attention, it will be one candidates word against the other. I really don't know who will win at that game.

In an election this close any and all of these three factors can tip the race to one candidate or the other. We must do everything possible to GOTV.

Why Hillary Will Win [View all] tgards79 Sep 2016 OP
how good vadermike Sep 2016 #1
Not at all impressed! CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #2
Follow the logic of the article tgards79 Sep 2016 #4
That is not cajons MO gabeana Sep 2016 #5
BS!!! CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #8
I'm thinking... tgards79 Sep 2016 #9
Wrong..... CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #11
You seem to be agreeing with BTRTN, not disagreeing. tgards79 Sep 2016 #12
The difference is BTRTN is saying "Hillary will win" CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #13
It is a logical argument tgards79 Sep 2016 #16
I guess that make sense if you ignore the fact.... CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #17
I didn't say I thought Trump will win CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #6
im not vadermike Sep 2016 #3
It is all we can do personally so it will have to be good enough CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #7
If you are worried about Hillary's odds on the election, read this... reggieandlee Sep 2016 #10
Because Trump is a criminal AND she will still be breathing. Destiny! Coyotl Sep 2016 #14
I'm still seeing a landslide ahead. My only concern is for the capture of oasis Sep 2016 #15
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