Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8% (Reply #31)

In the discussion thread: Election 2016 – Too Close for Comfort [View all]

Thu Sep 8, 2016, 03:12 PM

31. Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8%

So if the election were held today, approximately 7 our of every 10 times Hillary would win while Trump would win roughly 3 out of every ten times. (I would rather that number be in the 90% level as it was after the convention - but even a 10% chance of Trump winning is unacceptable to me.)

When the OP was posted Hillary's probability of winning was 72.5%, which with subsequent polls being published went down to 67.3% and recently went up again to 68.8 as I write this.

Hillary's current combined poll numbers in key swing states to watch:

Florida (29 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.8

Ohio (20 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.2

North Carolina (15 elect. votes) - Clinton +0.4%

Without these key states Hillary's electoral vote total goes down to 278, just above the magic 270 vote level.

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Replies to this discussion thread

31 replies	Author	Time	Post
Election 2016 – Too Close for Comfort [View all]	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	OP
Aything short of double digits is "too close to call" for me.	FBaggins	Sep 2016	#1
Ditto. Prollee a cheat underway. I do not believe anything is remotely close.	lonestarnot	Sep 2016	#6
Not close?	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#30
I keep waiting	daligirrl	Sep 2016	#2
I have observed much complacency on DU	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#5
Well, here's a little disturbance for you. The election	Hortensis	Sep 2016	#8
I hope they are right, but....	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#9
That's very wise, and I agree that the past cannot	Hortensis	Sep 2016	#10
I really don't see the benifit of one amateur supporter presuming....	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#12
I understand you don't like your message of concern	Hortensis	Sep 2016	#16
If you don't want to read the article, fine - just go to Nate Silver's website	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#20
CajunBlazer, we loved hearing the huge margins	Hortensis	Sep 2016	#21
I don't think we are very far apart	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#24
Well, I do agree. Except that we had no	Hortensis	Sep 2016	#26
Agree fully on all	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#28
Exactly how the media likes it	rock	Sep 2016	#3
That is not a rational answer	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#4
Somehow I feel that you make be slightly prejudice	rock	Sep 2016	#11
I am very prejudice towards "Cajun's Comments"	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#13
I'm starting to get nervous	Lsantos04	Sep 2016	#7
You're getting nervous over one poll?	DesertRat	Sep 2016	#14
The article about more than "just one poll"	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#15
It's going to be a wipeout. n/t	Lil Missy	Sep 2016	#17
Why should I believe that?	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#18
I don't care one iota whether you believe that.	Lil Missy	Sep 2016	#27
Fair enough - better question, why do you believe that?	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#29
Oh, you are back to spamming your own blog.	demmiblue	Sep 2016	#19
Check the DU rules	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#22
With all the push back you are getting, did you ever consider	William769	Sep 2016	#23
No, because I am not presenting my opinions, I am presenting facts	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#25
Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8%	CajunBlazer	Sep 2016	#31

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