2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Election 2016 – Too Close for Comfort [View all]CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)So if the election were held today, approximately 7 our of every 10 times Hillary would win while Trump would win roughly 3 out of every ten times. (I would rather that number be in the 90% level as it was after the convention - but even a 10% chance of Trump winning is unacceptable to me.)
When the OP was posted Hillary's probability of winning was 72.5%, which with subsequent polls being published went down to 67.3% and recently went up again to 68.8 as I write this.
Hillary's current combined poll numbers in key swing states to watch:
Florida (29 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.8
Ohio (20 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.2
North Carolina (15 elect. votes) - Clinton +0.4%
Without these key states Hillary's electoral vote total goes down to 278, just above the magic 270 vote level.