2016 Postmortem

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)

31. Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8%

Thu Sep 8, 2016, 03:12 PM

Sep 2016

So if the election were held today, approximately 7 our of every 10 times Hillary would win while Trump would win roughly 3 out of every ten times. (I would rather that number be in the 90% level as it was after the convention - but even a 10% chance of Trump winning is unacceptable to me.)

When the OP was posted Hillary's probability of winning was 72.5%, which with subsequent polls being published went down to 67.3% and recently went up again to 68.8 as I write this.

Hillary's current combined poll numbers in key swing states to watch:

Florida (29 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.8

Ohio (20 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.2

North Carolina (15 elect. votes) - Clinton +0.4%

Without these key states Hillary's electoral vote total goes down to 278, just above the magic 270 vote level.

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31 replies

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Election 2016 – Too Close for Comfort [View all] CajunBlazer Sep 2016 OP

Aything short of double digits is "too close to call" for me. FBaggins Sep 2016 #1

Ditto. Prollee a cheat underway. I do not believe anything is remotely close. lonestarnot Sep 2016 #6

Not close? CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #30

I keep waiting daligirrl Sep 2016 #2

I have observed much complacency on DU CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #5

Well, here's a little disturbance for you. The election Hortensis Sep 2016 #8

I hope they are right, but.... CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #9

That's very wise, and I agree that the past cannot Hortensis Sep 2016 #10

I really don't see the benifit of one amateur supporter presuming.... CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #12

I understand you don't like your message of concern Hortensis Sep 2016 #16

If you don't want to read the article, fine - just go to Nate Silver's website CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #20

CajunBlazer, we loved hearing the huge margins Hortensis Sep 2016 #21

I don't think we are very far apart CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #24

Well, I do agree. Except that we had no Hortensis Sep 2016 #26

Agree fully on all CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #28

Exactly how the media likes it rock Sep 2016 #3

That is not a rational answer CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #4

Somehow I feel that you make be slightly prejudice rock Sep 2016 #11

I am very prejudice towards "Cajun's Comments" CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #13

I'm starting to get nervous Lsantos04 Sep 2016 #7

You're getting nervous over one poll? DesertRat Sep 2016 #14

The article about more than "just one poll" CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #15

It's going to be a wipeout. n/t Lil Missy Sep 2016 #17

Why should I believe that? CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #18

I don't care one iota whether you believe that. Lil Missy Sep 2016 #27

Fair enough - better question, why do you believe that? CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #29

Oh, you are back to spamming your own blog. demmiblue Sep 2016 #19

Check the DU rules CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #22

With all the push back you are getting, did you ever consider William769 Sep 2016 #23

No, because I am not presenting my opinions, I am presenting facts CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #25

Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8% CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #31