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In the discussion thread: Election 2016 Too Close for Comfort [View all]

Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)

Thu Sep 8, 2016, 03:12 PM

31. Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8%

So if the election were held today, approximately 7 our of every 10 times Hillary would win while Trump would win roughly 3 out of every ten times. (I would rather that number be in the 90% level as it was after the convention - but even a 10% chance of Trump winning is unacceptable to me.)

When the OP was posted Hillary's probability of winning was 72.5%, which with subsequent polls being published went down to 67.3% and recently went up again to 68.8 as I write this.

Hillary's current combined poll numbers in key swing states to watch:

Florida (29 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.8

Ohio (20 elect. votes) - Clinton +1.2

North Carolina (15 elect. votes) - Clinton +0.4%

Without these key states Hillary's electoral vote total goes down to 278, just above the magic 270 vote level.

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Arrow 31 replies Author Time Post
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 OP
FBaggins Sep 2016 #1
lonestarnot Sep 2016 #6
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #30
daligirrl Sep 2016 #2
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #5
Hortensis Sep 2016 #8
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #9
Hortensis Sep 2016 #10
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #12
Hortensis Sep 2016 #16
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #20
Hortensis Sep 2016 #21
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #24
Hortensis Sep 2016 #26
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #28
rock Sep 2016 #3
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #4
rock Sep 2016 #11
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #13
Lsantos04 Sep 2016 #7
DesertRat Sep 2016 #14
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #15
Lil Missy Sep 2016 #17
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #18
Lil Missy Sep 2016 #27
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #29
demmiblue Sep 2016 #19
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #22
William769 Sep 2016 #23
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #25
LineNew Reply Update: Hillary's changes of winning the election fall to 68.8%
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #31
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