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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Election 2016 – Too Close... » Reply #20

Response to Hortensis (Reply #16)

Wed Sep 7, 2016, 05:46 PM

20. If you don't want to read the article, fine - just go to Nate Silver's website

Who will win the presidency?

In the short time since I posted the OP, according to Nate Silver Hillary's calculated probability of winning the election has dropped from 72.5% to 67.8%. Her combined poll lead in Ohio has dropped to 1.1%. In North Carolina it is 0.5%. In Florida it is 1.7%. In Nevada it is 2.8% and in New Hampshire her lead is down to 3.8%. In all of these states Hillary has held leads of 6% to 9%. She already lost leads she held in Iowa and Georgia, though that is understandable because they are usually reliable red states.

If the current trends continue and Hillary ultimately loses her leads in Ohio, Florida North Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire she will slip below the magic 270 electoral vote level.

Do I think she will ultimate lose her leads in all of those state, no, but given the current trends continue I think she will lose her leads in several of them and that causes me a lot of concern.

This is real folks - and it is serious. If you think this election is going to be a cake walk, you are wrong and hiding from reality.

From the last paragraph of the article:

Hillary needs to reverse these poll trends and there are signs she can do that. She has raised a lot of money to support her campaign so we will soon see plenty of media buys in all of the swing states and even some which the Trump campaign previously believed to be safe. She is starting to hit the campaign trail again for the final post Labor Day push and this time she will be joined by a full complement of A-list surrogates, from President Obama, to Michelle Obama, Joe Bidden, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Trump can’t compete with her in that department. Clinton’s ground game and get out the vote efforts are far superior to those of the Trump campaign, though he is making a very late effort to make up some of that ground. Hopefully all of these factors will combine to reverse the trends and again put Hillary in far superior position by November 8th.

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Arrow 31 replies Author Time Post
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 OP
FBaggins Sep 2016 #1
lonestarnot Sep 2016 #6
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #30
daligirrl Sep 2016 #2
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #5
Hortensis Sep 2016 #8
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #9
Hortensis Sep 2016 #10
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #12
Hortensis Sep 2016 #16
LineLineLineLineLineLineLineLineReply If you don't want to read the article, fine - just go to Nate Silver's website
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #20
Hortensis Sep 2016 #21
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #24
Hortensis Sep 2016 #26
CajunBlazer Sep 2016 #28
rock Sep 2016 #3
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DesertRat Sep 2016 #14
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