.... I am always leery of any methodology which seeks to predict the future based on what has happened in the past, especially in today's very strange electoral environment. No one has seen an election like this one; no one has seen an election with a candidate like Donald Trump. That set of facts cannot be disputed. While the race this election cycle has indeed tightened as it has in past elections, that doesn't necessarily mean that the current poll leader will go on to win the election as he/she has done in the pass. This is an election like no other we have ever seen.

I would rather rely on the facts that I see and alert people to get off their butts and increase their efforts to GOTV. I see absolutely no downside in waking people up to the possible danger and getting them more involved in the campaign. I do see a danger to Democrats closing their eyes to the facts as they currently exist and continue to sleep walk through the process.