I think there's a good chance 4 or 5 out of those 6 end up facing Teahadist challengers (who go down in flames): I think Begich, Landrieu, Johnson (if he runs, he might retire), and Baucus all win because they are strong incumbents. If Johnson doesn't run that's a tossu-up, and Hagen and Pryor are both very vulnerable as Dems in increasingly Red States.
I think Lautenberg is the most likely to retire due to health problems, but short of Hurricane Christie, the GOP cannot win that seat. I think Rockefeller and Harkin are both going to stick it out until health forces them out. I think both are basically Senators-for-Life and in both states a successor would be heavily favored.
Point of Order: Franken's margin was only close because the Reform Party Candidate pulled down 15% (Dean Barkley)
I think we're going to need really strong candidates to have a shot at any pick-ups. We should try to hold hold hold.
P.S. I like my Ashley Judd Fantasies. 
Edit history
= new reply since forum marked as read
