They are not prelimary (Reply #18) - Democratic Underground

In the discussion thread: My Critique of Nate Silver’s Critique of Exit Polls [View all]

Wed May 18, 2016, 04:00 PM

18. They are not prelimary

I am sure of that.

We'll just have to disagree on that point.

They are "adjusted" to automatically fit the vote count. That hides any discrepancy that may have been present before the "adjustment". Rigging of the vote could steal 20% of the vote, but the "adjusted" exit polls done by the networks shortly after the final vote is tallied will NEVER show us that because they will ALWAYS exactly fit the official count. That is what they do.

Exit polls do not change by 10 or 20% in a few seconds. It is the artificial "adjustment" by the networks that make it look like that.

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Replies to this discussion thread

19 replies	Author	Time	Post
My Critique of Nate Silver’s Critique of Exit Polls [View all]	Time for change	May 2016	OP
bump	JackRiddler	May 2016	#1
This is a very important post	Fearful	May 2016	#2
As the "official" results grow more suspect, exit polls need to be discredited.	reformist2	May 2016	#14
That's precisely why we need them as a monitor on the accuracy of our elections	Time for change	May 2016	#15
Looks like an entertaining conspiracy theory, but a little long of a read.	YouDig	May 2016	#3
It is not a conspiracy theory	Time for change	May 2016	#4
It is indeed that. I've come to be quite an expert by observing the good people of Bernopia.	YouDig	May 2016	#5
Yet do you have enough intelligence to respond to any one of my criticisms of	Time for change	May 2016	#7
they have a gameplan and theyre sticking to it.	reddread	May 2016	#13
Thank you. Excellent analysis and very easy to read/understand for us non-statisticians.	2cannan	May 2016	#6
Thank you very much	Time for change	May 2016	#8
Nate doesn't do polling	zipplewrath	May 2016	#17
Ok, he makes his living by analyzing pre-election polls	Time for change	May 2016	#19
I appreciate you taking the time to write it out, but you still misunderstand the purpose of exits	Godhumor	May 2016	#9
They are not used in this country for that purpose	Time for change	May 2016	#10
OK, sure? Fine, exits shoud be used to predict winners	Godhumor	May 2016	#11
I am not pointing to first wave exit polls	Time for change	May 2016	#12
Those are still preliminary	Godhumor	May 2016	#16
They are not prelimary	Time for change	May 2016	#18

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