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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
9. I appreciate you taking the time to write it out, but you still misunderstand the purpose of exits
Wed May 18, 2016, 01:55 PM
May 2016

They are not and have not ever been intended to be a harbinger of who will win an election, though they have been used as such in media and by pollsters who have padded the bottom line by touting predictive questions. They are a tool for post-election demographic analysis, which is why they are performed in waves and true-upped to official results after results are realized.

NY is a good example of how this works--the first wave of exits, the ones that purported to show a close race, were overrepresented of Buffalo, NY--Bernie's best metro area in the state (and where I live). The reason for that is practical, Erie Country was one of the very few counties outside of NYC that opened polls in the morning instead of at noon. So it got hit with a lot of exit poll takers, again, for the first, early wave.

There is no exit poll conspiracy, none.

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bump JackRiddler May 2016 #1
This is a very important post Fearful May 2016 #2
As the "official" results grow more suspect, exit polls need to be discredited. reformist2 May 2016 #14
That's precisely why we need them as a monitor on the accuracy of our elections Time for change May 2016 #15
Looks like an entertaining conspiracy theory, but a little long of a read. YouDig May 2016 #3
It is not a conspiracy theory Time for change May 2016 #4
It is indeed that. I've come to be quite an expert by observing the good people of Bernopia. YouDig May 2016 #5
Yet do you have enough intelligence to respond to any one of my criticisms of Time for change May 2016 #7
they have a gameplan and theyre sticking to it. reddread May 2016 #13
Thank you. Excellent analysis and very easy to read/understand for us non-statisticians. 2cannan May 2016 #6
Thank you very much Time for change May 2016 #8
Nate doesn't do polling zipplewrath May 2016 #17
Ok, he makes his living by analyzing pre-election polls Time for change May 2016 #19
I appreciate you taking the time to write it out, but you still misunderstand the purpose of exits Godhumor May 2016 #9
They are not used in this country for that purpose Time for change May 2016 #10
OK, sure? Fine, exits shoud be used to predict winners Godhumor May 2016 #11
I am not pointing to first wave exit polls Time for change May 2016 #12
Those are still preliminary Godhumor May 2016 #16
They are not prelimary Time for change May 2016 #18
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