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2016 Postmortem

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

4. 'General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing.'

Reply to amborin (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 11:57 PM

May 2016

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls

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Highlight:

The Trend of GE Polls: HRC vs Trump and Bernie Sanders vs Trump [View all] amborin May 2016 OP

One is a margin I can get behind. dchill May 2016 #1

I love how all of the pollsters are ignoring this. northernsouthern May 2016 #2

Far less statistical "noise" in the bottom chart = greater reliability CentralCoaster May 2016 #3

'General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing.' onehandle May 2016 #4

twitter lol? pretty pictures. what polls, exactly? nt msongs May 2016 #5

Thanks! I just shared this on social media. nt silvershadow May 2016 #6