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2016 Postmortem

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(6,414 posts)
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:02 AM Oct 2012

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Ohio Poll, Obama +5 [View all]

I don't think this is old. It looks like the article was released early maybe.

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- As President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the presidential race, where the 18 electoral votes of Ohio are seen by both sides as critical to victory, Obama's ability to prevent erosion among working-class voters may be his best path to re-election.

In Ohio, according to the latest poll of likely voters by Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News, Obama runs nearly even with Romney among white voters who do not have college degrees.

That helps explain why he appears slightly better positioned there in the closing week of the campaign than in Florida and Virginia, where the polls found that Romney holds an advantage of about 30 percentage points among those voters.
The presidential contest has become an intense state-by-state fight, with the climate in Ohio shaped by months of efforts by the Obama campaign to portray Romney as a job killer who opposed the president's decision to bail out the auto industry.

Obama, who has a 50 percent to 45 percent edge there, also appears to be benefiting from an economic recovery in Ohio that is running ahead of the national recovery.

The poll found that nearly half of all white voters without college degrees there say the economy is improving, and most give Obama some credit. Only about a quarter of those voters in Virginia and Florida say their economy is getting better.
The polls, along with interviews with strategists and supporters in the three battleground states, illustrate the dynamic facing both campaigns in the final days of the race. The race is essentially tied in Florida and Virginia, the polls found.

The Ohio economy's recovery has complicated Romney's efforts to portray Obama as an ineffective leader. The president is seen in a favorable light by 52 percent of likely voters, compared with 46 percent who have a favorable opinion of Romney.

Yet the poll here showed that the race is tight, with Obama's 5-point edge the same as last week but cut in half from a month ago.
Among the likely voters in Ohio who say they are paying a lot of attention to the race, Obama's edge narrows to 1 percentage point, or essentially tied, which underscores the extent to which the race will turn on the get-out-the-vote efforts of each campaign.

"It seems like the economy is on an upswing," Kathleen Foley, a special-education teacher in Dayton, said in a follow-up interview. "I truly believe that in the next few years, our economy is going to see an upswing. I'd like Obama to get some credit for the work he's done."

A nationwide poll of likely voters from The New York Times and CBS News, which was released Tuesday evening, found that more voters now view Romney as a stronger leader on the economy and Obama as a better guardian of the middle class. The president was the choice of 48 percent, with 47 percent for Romney. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, has tracked the presidential race with recurring polls in key battleground states. The three latest surveys, which were conducted Oct. 23-28 among likely voters on land lines and cellphones, are the final series in the project.

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Nice woolldog Oct 2012 #1
Yeah, on the Quinnipiac site it says the results will be release at 7:00 AM tomorrow DrToast Oct 2012 #3
Oh wait a minute, woolldog Oct 2012 #5
Boom. pointsoflight Oct 2012 #2
Hm...if it's not their old poll, then yes, this was leaked... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #4
It's a NYT article. DrToast Oct 2012 #7
+5 is exactly their last poll... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #8
Yeah, they mention that the 5% lead is the same as their last week's poll Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #9
Stability favors Obama. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #10
Yes, I put that section in bold now DrToast Oct 2012 #11
Apparently Quinnipiac shows Obama Tied in VIRGINIA & FLORIDA ? TroyD Oct 2012 #16
That's what it looks like. Tho, who knows if it's a real tie or a statistical tie. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #18
You were right DrToast Oct 2012 #23
SUSA, Time, CNN, Marist/WSJ, and Quinnipiac all show Obama with a 3-5% lead Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #6
3-5% in Florida? Left Coast2020 Oct 2012 #20
It's women like this who are going to save the day BeyondGeography Oct 2012 #12
So this OHIO poll just broke late tonight? TroyD Oct 2012 #13
It's supposed to be released tomorrow at 7:00 AM DrToast Oct 2012 #15
Outstanding find! I think you actually scooped some mainstream folks! LOL! aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #14
I needed good news BainsBane Oct 2012 #17
I don't understand? aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #19
Ras is a "repug" organization. Left Coast2020 Oct 2012 #21
Woohoo! Just six days of campaigning left VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #22
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