2016 Postmortem

Tom Rinaldo

(22,911 posts)

28. Thank you. K&R n/t

Reply to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Apr 23, 2016, 08:09 PM

Apr 2016

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My Letter to Nate Silver on the Huge Exit Poll Discrepancies We’re Seeing in the Dem Primaries [View all] Time for change Apr 2016 OP

K&R silvershadow Apr 2016 #1

Exit polls don't include early voting or absentee MattP Apr 2016 #2

That is not true Time for change Apr 2016 #7

Part of the answer for why the exits have been off sometimes is in your answer.... Adrahil Apr 2016 #18

Margin of error is way beyond 80% in any poll I've ever seen Time for change Apr 2016 #19

You missed the main part of my argument. Adrahil Apr 2016 #40

Exit polls are, to coin a term I heard somewhere, "the gold standard" for determining election fraud Kip Humphrey Apr 2016 #101

OKay, then show me.... Adrahil Apr 2016 #108

See response # 44 Time for change Apr 2016 #111

Primaries are different animals. Adrahil Apr 2016 #113

Why would that be, and where did you get that from? Time for change Apr 2016 #116

BUll S**T! Exit Polling Selects Pollees Randomly So "Enthusiasm" Is Factored Out! CorporatistNation Apr 2016 #106

lots of issues... Adrahil Apr 2016 #109

This is evidence samson212 Apr 2016 #117

How do you sample vote by mail or absentee ballots Gothmog Apr 2016 #20

You do those samples the same way you do pre-election polling: by telephone Time for change Apr 2016 #29

That is notvwhat is being done in the real world Gothmog Apr 2016 #50

Yes, that is how it's done Time for change Apr 2016 #72

Seems like using information from the voter registration numbers: phone exchange areas, and DhhD Apr 2016 #119

My husband is less than truthful to exit pollsters. He thinks he's funny. grossproffit Apr 2016 #3

I know several people who said they are always economical goldent Apr 2016 #67

Quit being a sore loser... Else You Are Mad Apr 2016 #4

Yep. nt SusanCalvin Apr 2016 #30

You forgot to include the most important point of your comment pdsimdars Apr 2016 #37

I figured it was obvious... nt Else You Are Mad Apr 2016 #39

Never take that for granted. Some people post things seriously that are just as looney pdsimdars Apr 2016 #84

Great letter! I would hope that you might send this bbgrunt Apr 2016 #5

Thank you. It sure does include that. Time for change Apr 2016 #11

This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel Apr 2016 #6

His staff might bring it to his attention and recommend he read it. Time for change Apr 2016 #14

No, he's much too important. SalviaBlue Apr 2016 #23

Here's Nate's answer: brooklynite Apr 2016 #92

That just a bunch of confimation bias beedle Apr 2016 #96

Exit polls would be a gold standard if you polled early voters MattP Apr 2016 #8

They are included Time for change Apr 2016 #12

Excellent work. I hope your letter is read by as many people as possible. Old Crow Apr 2016 #9

What % of people decline to answer the exit poll? JoePhilly Apr 2016 #10

I believe it is very small Time for change Apr 2016 #13

I think it would vary greatly by state. JoePhilly Apr 2016 #16

Hillary is and has been the presumptive nominee since the primary season opened Time for change Apr 2016 #31

wow, thank you for this work! nt kgnu_fan Apr 2016 #15

It appears that Edison used a consistent methodology that proved consistently wrong Onlooker Apr 2016 #17

Thank you. Have you had any contact with Palast? nt 7wo7rees Apr 2016 #21

No, I don't Time for change Apr 2016 #33

Maybe you should. Your analysis is spot on. nt 7wo7rees Apr 2016 #36

Or Taibi pdsimdars Apr 2016 #38

K&R smiley Apr 2016 #22

Basic math DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #24

Yep. Lucinda Apr 2016 #26

The exit polls in the OP are final exit polls, not first or second wave Time for change Apr 2016 #34

I cited the CNN Exit Poll DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #35

CNN only shows us exit polls that are "adjusted" to fit the official vote count Time for change Apr 2016 #46

Exit polls aren't as accurate as you think they are. They are more self-selected. pnwmom Apr 2016 #25

Nate Silver 2008: Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls - from Mark Bluemthnal factfinder_77 Apr 2016 #27

Yes, all of our national "news" media tries to get us to ignore exit polls Time for change Apr 2016 #42

The whole world depends on exit polls to validate elections. farleftlib Apr 2016 #44

Exactly, Nate's "10 lame excuses" beedle Apr 2016 #97

Thank you. K&R n/t Tom Rinaldo Apr 2016 #28

He's gonna TL;DR the hell out of that nt firebrand80 Apr 2016 #32

Silly lefties. Unicorns, rainbows and fair elections are just blue sky pipe dreams. Scuba Apr 2016 #41

How about sending the letter rewritten for former President Carter. All in it together Apr 2016 #43

Actually, he has assessed elections here Time for change Apr 2016 #45

I can't believe people put this much effort into these crazy theories. YouDig Apr 2016 #47

Yeah, it's really crazy to think that someone in this country would try to steal an election Time for change Apr 2016 #48

It's crazy to think that Hillary, or Bernie for that matter, tried to steal YouDig Apr 2016 #49

First I didn't accuse Hillary of doing it personally Time for change Apr 2016 #64

There's zero evidence that it was "done on her behalf." It's the exact same amount of evidence that YouDig Apr 2016 #66

There was also zero evidence, as in hard evidence nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #73

... AzDar Apr 2016 #123

Entirely spot on. BlindTiresias May 2016 #134

This is a stunning piece of work and I thank you for compiling it and sharing it with us Samantha Apr 2016 #79

I suppose exit polls wouldn't matter if Bernie was ahead in delegate count? leftofcool Apr 2016 #129

That's exactly what the Republicans said about the united party that was the Democrats CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #51

"Did we have video proof of the theft? No." Good point. YouDig Apr 2016 #52

Again, we had no evidence that Bush did it either CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #57

I'm sure people "just know" that Bernie cheated too. But what actually happened YouDig Apr 2016 #58

I'm really starting to seriously doubt that (nt) CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #61

Actually, the large exit poll discrepancy in Ohio led to numerous investigations Time for change Apr 2016 #69

I missed that part of the story nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #74

Yeah, really Time for change Apr 2016 #91

Isn't there something wrong with the New York stats? LAS14 Apr 2016 #53

Exactly -- That's the problem Time for change Apr 2016 #104

I feel the same way. goldent Apr 2016 #68

You sure put a lot of work into this, Time for change ailsagirl Apr 2016 #54

Why are you assuming exit polls are the epitome or standard of accuracy and are infallible? LonePirate Apr 2016 #55

I never said that they were the definitive standard Time for change Apr 2016 #59

You are suggesting that exit polls are the true election barometer and not the actual results LonePirate Apr 2016 #75

I am suggesting that they very well could be much more accurate than the official vote counts Time for change Apr 2016 #77

You shouyld inform, among others, the US Department of state of this fact nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #70

You're not serious with that comparison between Ukraine and the US are you? LonePirate Apr 2016 #76

I am serious in the sense that the US Department of State uses them as a gold standard nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #78

My letter to Nate Silver. Mesee Apr 2016 #56

Great Time for change Apr 2016 #60

K&R'd & bookmarked. snot Apr 2016 #62

Nate should either stand up for his expertise or say why he didn't... MrMickeysMom Apr 2016 #63

Thank you! Unicorn Apr 2016 #65

I first voted in 1996, and have never been asked how I voted upon leaving Tarc Apr 2016 #71

Yes, I'm well aware of this Time for change Apr 2016 #90

K&R CharlotteVale Apr 2016 #80

Thank you for doing this. Chezboo Apr 2016 #81

I hope you are wrong, but afraid you may be on to something. K and R! Admiral Loinpresser Apr 2016 #82

K&R nenagh Apr 2016 #83

Nice. You should send this to all publications everywhere, and all elected officials. cui bono Apr 2016 #85

K&R silvershadow Apr 2016 #86

Exit polls are mostly bogus for all sorts of reasons. DCBob Apr 2016 #87

As I've explained many times on this thread Time for change Apr 2016 #94

Ok.. they are mostly inaccurate. DCBob Apr 2016 #99

I doubt that they are as inaccurate as our official vote counts Time for change Apr 2016 #102

No vote is ever going to be perfectly accurate. DCBob Apr 2016 #103

Perfectly accurate? Time for change Apr 2016 #107

How should I have said it.. "entirely accurate" "completely accurate" "fully accurate"? DCBob Apr 2016 #114

Any informed person knows that election fraud is rampant in this country Time for change Apr 2016 #118

This message was self-deleted by its author cyberpj Apr 2016 #110

Quick, tell the State Department they are silly nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #98

The topic is election exit polls. DCBob Apr 2016 #100

kick smiley Apr 2016 #88

Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #89

K&R Ferd Berfel Apr 2016 #93

Any responses from Nate? kgnu_fan Apr 2016 #95

Not the last time I checked, about an hour ago Time for change Apr 2016 #105

Wonderful letter. Please keep us advised if and when Silver responds. EndElectoral Apr 2016 #112

Thank you Time for change Apr 2016 #115

Still nothing? Have you tried calling in to Thom Hartmann? mojowork_n Apr 2016 #120

No word from Nate Silver Time for change Apr 2016 #121

Also Time for change Apr 2016 #125

Is there any independent group that investigates these discrepancies ? EndElectoral Apr 2016 #122

Taking Nate to School? BootinUp Apr 2016 #124

Would this qualify as Stage 3: Bargaining? RandySF Apr 2016 #126

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2016 #127

CNN routinely "adjusts their poll numbers" after the votes have been counted to fit the Time for change Apr 2016 #130

Thank you. Silver has been blatantly biased from the off, though. merrily Apr 2016 #128

This message was self-deleted by its author DUbeornot2be May 2016 #131

Thank you for the idea Time for change May 2016 #132

This message was self-deleted by its author DUbeornot2be May 2016 #133

Truly excellent OP BlindTiresias May 2016 #135

Thank you. No response from Nate yet Time for change May 2016 #136