2016 Postmortem

Time for change

(13,714 posts)

13. I believe it is very small

Sat Apr 23, 2016, 07:05 PM

Apr 2016

In any event, it seems to me that very few people would be reluctant to acknowledge that they voted for the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. It seems to me that to the extent that people were afraid to admit who they voted for, that would hurt Bernie more than Hillary.

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My Letter to Nate Silver on the Huge Exit Poll Discrepancies We’re Seeing in the Dem Primaries [View all] Time for change Apr 2016 OP

K&R silvershadow Apr 2016 #1

Exit polls don't include early voting or absentee MattP Apr 2016 #2

That is not true Time for change Apr 2016 #7

Part of the answer for why the exits have been off sometimes is in your answer.... Adrahil Apr 2016 #18

Margin of error is way beyond 80% in any poll I've ever seen Time for change Apr 2016 #19

You missed the main part of my argument. Adrahil Apr 2016 #40

Exit polls are, to coin a term I heard somewhere, "the gold standard" for determining election fraud Kip Humphrey Apr 2016 #101

OKay, then show me.... Adrahil Apr 2016 #108

See response # 44 Time for change Apr 2016 #111

Primaries are different animals. Adrahil Apr 2016 #113

Why would that be, and where did you get that from? Time for change Apr 2016 #116

BUll S**T! Exit Polling Selects Pollees Randomly So "Enthusiasm" Is Factored Out! CorporatistNation Apr 2016 #106

lots of issues... Adrahil Apr 2016 #109

This is evidence samson212 Apr 2016 #117

How do you sample vote by mail or absentee ballots Gothmog Apr 2016 #20

You do those samples the same way you do pre-election polling: by telephone Time for change Apr 2016 #29

That is notvwhat is being done in the real world Gothmog Apr 2016 #50

Yes, that is how it's done Time for change Apr 2016 #72

Seems like using information from the voter registration numbers: phone exchange areas, and DhhD Apr 2016 #119

My husband is less than truthful to exit pollsters. He thinks he's funny. grossproffit Apr 2016 #3

I know several people who said they are always economical goldent Apr 2016 #67

Quit being a sore loser... Else You Are Mad Apr 2016 #4

Yep. nt SusanCalvin Apr 2016 #30

You forgot to include the most important point of your comment pdsimdars Apr 2016 #37

I figured it was obvious... nt Else You Are Mad Apr 2016 #39

Never take that for granted. Some people post things seriously that are just as looney pdsimdars Apr 2016 #84

Great letter! I would hope that you might send this bbgrunt Apr 2016 #5

Thank you. It sure does include that. Time for change Apr 2016 #11

This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel Apr 2016 #6

His staff might bring it to his attention and recommend he read it. Time for change Apr 2016 #14

No, he's much too important. SalviaBlue Apr 2016 #23

Here's Nate's answer: brooklynite Apr 2016 #92

That just a bunch of confimation bias beedle Apr 2016 #96

Exit polls would be a gold standard if you polled early voters MattP Apr 2016 #8

They are included Time for change Apr 2016 #12

Excellent work. I hope your letter is read by as many people as possible. Old Crow Apr 2016 #9

What % of people decline to answer the exit poll? JoePhilly Apr 2016 #10

I believe it is very small Time for change Apr 2016 #13

I think it would vary greatly by state. JoePhilly Apr 2016 #16

Hillary is and has been the presumptive nominee since the primary season opened Time for change Apr 2016 #31

wow, thank you for this work! nt kgnu_fan Apr 2016 #15

It appears that Edison used a consistent methodology that proved consistently wrong Onlooker Apr 2016 #17

Thank you. Have you had any contact with Palast? nt 7wo7rees Apr 2016 #21

No, I don't Time for change Apr 2016 #33

Maybe you should. Your analysis is spot on. nt 7wo7rees Apr 2016 #36

Or Taibi pdsimdars Apr 2016 #38

K&R smiley Apr 2016 #22

Basic math DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #24

Yep. Lucinda Apr 2016 #26

The exit polls in the OP are final exit polls, not first or second wave Time for change Apr 2016 #34

I cited the CNN Exit Poll DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #35

CNN only shows us exit polls that are "adjusted" to fit the official vote count Time for change Apr 2016 #46

Exit polls aren't as accurate as you think they are. They are more self-selected. pnwmom Apr 2016 #25

Nate Silver 2008: Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls - from Mark Bluemthnal factfinder_77 Apr 2016 #27

Yes, all of our national "news" media tries to get us to ignore exit polls Time for change Apr 2016 #42

The whole world depends on exit polls to validate elections. farleftlib Apr 2016 #44

Exactly, Nate's "10 lame excuses" beedle Apr 2016 #97

Thank you. K&R n/t Tom Rinaldo Apr 2016 #28

He's gonna TL;DR the hell out of that nt firebrand80 Apr 2016 #32

Silly lefties. Unicorns, rainbows and fair elections are just blue sky pipe dreams. Scuba Apr 2016 #41

How about sending the letter rewritten for former President Carter. All in it together Apr 2016 #43

Actually, he has assessed elections here Time for change Apr 2016 #45

I can't believe people put this much effort into these crazy theories. YouDig Apr 2016 #47

Yeah, it's really crazy to think that someone in this country would try to steal an election Time for change Apr 2016 #48

It's crazy to think that Hillary, or Bernie for that matter, tried to steal YouDig Apr 2016 #49

First I didn't accuse Hillary of doing it personally Time for change Apr 2016 #64

There's zero evidence that it was "done on her behalf." It's the exact same amount of evidence that YouDig Apr 2016 #66

There was also zero evidence, as in hard evidence nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #73

... AzDar Apr 2016 #123

Entirely spot on. BlindTiresias May 2016 #134

This is a stunning piece of work and I thank you for compiling it and sharing it with us Samantha Apr 2016 #79

I suppose exit polls wouldn't matter if Bernie was ahead in delegate count? leftofcool Apr 2016 #129

That's exactly what the Republicans said about the united party that was the Democrats CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #51

"Did we have video proof of the theft? No." Good point. YouDig Apr 2016 #52

Again, we had no evidence that Bush did it either CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #57

I'm sure people "just know" that Bernie cheated too. But what actually happened YouDig Apr 2016 #58

I'm really starting to seriously doubt that (nt) CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #61

Actually, the large exit poll discrepancy in Ohio led to numerous investigations Time for change Apr 2016 #69

I missed that part of the story nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #74

Yeah, really Time for change Apr 2016 #91

Isn't there something wrong with the New York stats? LAS14 Apr 2016 #53

Exactly -- That's the problem Time for change Apr 2016 #104

I feel the same way. goldent Apr 2016 #68

You sure put a lot of work into this, Time for change ailsagirl Apr 2016 #54

Why are you assuming exit polls are the epitome or standard of accuracy and are infallible? LonePirate Apr 2016 #55

I never said that they were the definitive standard Time for change Apr 2016 #59

You are suggesting that exit polls are the true election barometer and not the actual results LonePirate Apr 2016 #75

I am suggesting that they very well could be much more accurate than the official vote counts Time for change Apr 2016 #77

You shouyld inform, among others, the US Department of state of this fact nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #70

You're not serious with that comparison between Ukraine and the US are you? LonePirate Apr 2016 #76

I am serious in the sense that the US Department of State uses them as a gold standard nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #78

My letter to Nate Silver. Mesee Apr 2016 #56

Great Time for change Apr 2016 #60

K&R'd & bookmarked. snot Apr 2016 #62

Nate should either stand up for his expertise or say why he didn't... MrMickeysMom Apr 2016 #63

Thank you! Unicorn Apr 2016 #65

I first voted in 1996, and have never been asked how I voted upon leaving Tarc Apr 2016 #71

Yes, I'm well aware of this Time for change Apr 2016 #90

K&R CharlotteVale Apr 2016 #80

Thank you for doing this. Chezboo Apr 2016 #81

I hope you are wrong, but afraid you may be on to something. K and R! Admiral Loinpresser Apr 2016 #82

K&R nenagh Apr 2016 #83

Nice. You should send this to all publications everywhere, and all elected officials. cui bono Apr 2016 #85

K&R silvershadow Apr 2016 #86

Exit polls are mostly bogus for all sorts of reasons. DCBob Apr 2016 #87

As I've explained many times on this thread Time for change Apr 2016 #94

Ok.. they are mostly inaccurate. DCBob Apr 2016 #99

I doubt that they are as inaccurate as our official vote counts Time for change Apr 2016 #102

No vote is ever going to be perfectly accurate. DCBob Apr 2016 #103

Perfectly accurate? Time for change Apr 2016 #107

How should I have said it.. "entirely accurate" "completely accurate" "fully accurate"? DCBob Apr 2016 #114

Any informed person knows that election fraud is rampant in this country Time for change Apr 2016 #118

This message was self-deleted by its author cyberpj Apr 2016 #110

Quick, tell the State Department they are silly nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #98

The topic is election exit polls. DCBob Apr 2016 #100

kick smiley Apr 2016 #88

Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #89

K&R Ferd Berfel Apr 2016 #93

Any responses from Nate? kgnu_fan Apr 2016 #95

Not the last time I checked, about an hour ago Time for change Apr 2016 #105

Wonderful letter. Please keep us advised if and when Silver responds. EndElectoral Apr 2016 #112

Thank you Time for change Apr 2016 #115

Still nothing? Have you tried calling in to Thom Hartmann? mojowork_n Apr 2016 #120

No word from Nate Silver Time for change Apr 2016 #121

Also Time for change Apr 2016 #125

Is there any independent group that investigates these discrepancies ? EndElectoral Apr 2016 #122

Taking Nate to School? BootinUp Apr 2016 #124

Would this qualify as Stage 3: Bargaining? RandySF Apr 2016 #126

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2016 #127

CNN routinely "adjusts their poll numbers" after the votes have been counted to fit the Time for change Apr 2016 #130

Thank you. Silver has been blatantly biased from the off, though. merrily Apr 2016 #128

This message was self-deleted by its author DUbeornot2be May 2016 #131

Thank you for the idea Time for change May 2016 #132

This message was self-deleted by its author DUbeornot2be May 2016 #133

Truly excellent OP BlindTiresias May 2016 #135

Thank you. No response from Nate yet Time for change May 2016 #136