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Fri Oct 26, 2012, 06:35 PM

The Road to 270: Romney's Joementum [View all]

Just eleven out until Election Day, it seems as if President Obama is pulling away in polls albeit the race is still quite tight, but don't tell that the liberal media. Another example of the MSM's desire for an electoral horserace, the mainstream media has been perpetuating this claim that Mitt Romney has momentum, but the polls and electoral projections tell a different story.

Here's just some examples of the myth of "Romentum."

"Its a fools game to guess whose momentum is greater. But Romney is peaking at just the right moment."

That was Slate's John Dickerson. Here's another example from the New York Times' David Brooks.

"That if the election were held today (which it wont be), then President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. At the same time, there seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney."

In the past few days, Professor Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has responded to this theory of Romentum. Here's his take on the state of the race.

"I will guess that John Dickerson and David Brooks might not have found high school calculus to be their favorite subject. I wonder how they did in it."

He also says...

President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. This is false hes a lot more likely to win.
Ro-mentum ended around October 11th, the date of the VP Biden-Ryan debate and reversed around October 16th, Debate #2. Now the median EV expectation is at a plateau around Obama 293 EV, Romney 245 EV.

The New York Times' Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog agreed with Professor Wang in an October 24th Forecast Update entitled In Polls, Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped. In his article, Mr. Silver states that "Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so."

Moreover, polls released in recent days showing President Obama either leading or tied in battleground states including Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and Iowa. Let's take a look, shall we?


Moving on, let's look at some projections!


RealClearPolitics (No Toss-Ups)

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (A bit dated...)


TPM's Electoral Scoreboard


Huffington Post Electoral Map


And to conclude, Nate Silver's projection from last night...


Have any doubts about RealClearPolitics? Well, let me help you put your concerns to rest.


Seems legit.


Talk about a wing and a prayer.

Final Analysis: When the polls, Nate Silver, Sam Wang, Larry Sabato, the Huffington Post, Talking Points Memo, Votamatic, and the awe-inspiring RealClearPolitics shows that your guy is going to lose, yet you firmly believe that he will win. You don't have Romentum; no, you have Romnesia.

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