that might pertain to the dichotomy in RVs versus LVs in the polling models. It seems that many of these pollsters are skewing more towards the Romney voter turnout assumptions to determine their likely voter models.
But, what O is doing is getting people that aren't as likely to vote, and getting their asses to the poll.
But all the data I see says we are getting our sporadics to vote at a higher rate than they are, which, especially for any Democratic candidate, is a bigger challenge because we have lower propensity voters. That’s exactly what we are doing and we feel great about that.
That is the most important thing. Every Romney path to victory depends on people who would vote for Obama not showing up. But Obama's campaign is identifying those same people and making sure they vote.
When they talk about the data looking good, that's specifically what they are talking about. They know, for example, that they have sporadic voters in Ohio they need to get to the polls. So, they identified them, and got them to go vote early. Money in the bank. Now, when a pollster calls that same person, they would fail the likely voter screen (prior to voting). As much as we focus on the raw numbers in early voting this year versus 2008, the real key is who those people are and whether they were going to vote anyway. OFA has identified those people that are not sure to vote, and they see in the early voting data, that those people are in fact voting at the rate they need to win, so that's why they are confident. It is the election, and they are already winning it.
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