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2016 Postmortem

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)

15. Whether true or not, the conventional wisdom is that

Reply to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 01:51 PM

Oct 2012

Presidents are reelected when their job approval rating is at least at 50 percent. Political pundits and media have repeated that mantra for decades, including this year.

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How can Obama have 53 approval and be down in Gallup? [View all] VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 OP

Approval is all adults, not only registered voters cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #1

Not even likely voters. n/t rayofreason Oct 2012 #14

Plenty of ways FBaggins Oct 2012 #2

Has A President With An Approval Rating > 50% On Election Day In Gallup Ever Been Defeated? DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #5

A fallacious question FBaggins Oct 2012 #10

I Thought You Would Be More Humble After Geek Tragedy Owned You In This Thread DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #20

Uh... no. Humility or lack thereof has nothing to do with it. FBaggins Oct 2012 #21

The President Has Moved Up In That Tracker Four Points Since Sunday. That's A Large Move DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #23

The prediction was up to five points RV since Monday. FBaggins Oct 2012 #25

All adults > Registered Voters > Likely Voters geek tragedy Oct 2012 #3

All adults do not vote... rayofreason Oct 2012 #18

If There Was Compulsory Voting The Rs Would Never Win A Nat'l Race DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #26

They want a horse race Jazzy_Obama Oct 2012 #4

+1 ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #24

All the media wants to do is push GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #6

Bad Poll Numbers... Blue Idaho Oct 2012 #7

In addition to RV vs. LV, another important factor DrToast Oct 2012 #8

I think MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #9

All the Gallup numbers are moving in the right direction--as the approval rating grows so WI_DEM Oct 2012 #11

If you find out, let me know... BlueDemKev Oct 2012 #12

Gallup Doesn't Poll Minorities november3rd Oct 2012 #13

Don't be silly... Of course they do. FBaggins Oct 2012 #16

Whether true or not, the conventional wisdom is that VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #15

Because of the Likely Voter model Gallup uses. He is up one point in Registered Voters. yellowcanine Oct 2012 #17

"If you don't vote, you can't complain" ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #19

Obama is down by a huge amount in the South NewJeffCT Oct 2012 #22

Dems need to Publicize Obama's surging approval numbers. Repubs don't want to talk about it at all. VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #27