IBD/TIPP tracking poll Obama 47.9 Romney 42.2

[Mutiny In Heaven]

17. There wasn't too much in the south circa 2008 pre-election polling

And really, it depends on what states they're considering to be part of that region. Obama will get blitzed in the usual places, but contemplate that there's hugely mixed polling coming out of, for example, Florida. It's not outside the realm of possibility that he could win that state by a similar margin.

Personally, I think a point is low - I say add another 5-6 to that, but I do think that certain polling firms' likely voter screens are going to look pretty shabby after this election.