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2016 Postmortem

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Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 12:55 PM Oct 2012

NC\IA\OH\NV ON TRACK FOR OBAMA (NC UPDATE)!!! [View all]

Last edited Mon Oct 22, 2012, 11:02 AM - Edit history (2)

For those whining, crying, ledge-walking, Depends wearing doomsayers take note:
Those 'unikely voters' are voting...

NORTH CAROLINA

10/22

NC Early Voting Day 4: African American Turnout Doubles White GOP Turnout Sunday


More HERE

10/21

Turnout so far in 2012 early voting can only be described as epic. Yesterday's diary reported that turnout was up 26.6% above 2008. Now with updated data, turnout is 36.6% above 2008. And that number will only go up even further if there are still some counties lagging behind.

Overall, Obama appears to be building up an early vote margin right in line with the early vote margin he built up in 2008. In fact, Saturday was even better than the same Saturday in 2008. But because early turnout is higher, it could be harder for Romney to make up the difference on election day than it was for McCain in 2008, because there may not be as many Romney voters left over for election day. More of the Obama early voters are new voters who would not be able to vote on election day if they did not vote right now, whereas most of the Romney early voters would otherwise just vote on election day.

In sum, 2008 is happening again in North Carolina, only the turnout is even higher.

More on that later; now let's take a look at those 42,709 new voters.


Well, new voter registration statistics have been released, and so now we have the evidence to back up that speculation. This is an over-generalization, but broadly Obama is indeed turning out new voters, whereas Romney is turning out the same old voters.

In total, 324,780 people voted in One-Stop Early Voting on Thursday and Friday. Of those, 42,709 were brand new previously unregistered voters. They did not pass any poll's "likely voter" screen, nor did they even pass any poll's registered voter screen. And yet, they voted. And it is clear that they voted overwhelmingly for Obama (probably by about 2 to 1).


Read the rest w/ graphs and stats HERE

Why waste time pulling hair out over polls when the Obama Campaign tells you straight from the horse's mouth?:

IOWA:

Jeremy Bird/OFA
IOWA Dems currently have a 55,100 votes cast advantage - 53% higher than the advantage at this point in 2008


OHIO:
It turns out Republicans’ mangled math isn’t limited to a mystery tax cut plan that doesn’t add
up


Before we address Republicans’ claims, here are some numbers reflecting Democrats’ strong
position in the critical state of Ohio:
1. All public polling shows that the President has a double-digit lead among those who
have voted:

 Survey USA found that Obama leads by 19 points (57/38) among those who have
voted already.

 Rasmussen, a Republican pollster, found that Obama leads by 29 points (63/34)
among those who have voted already.
 The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that Obama leads by 26 points (63/37)
among those who have voted already.
 PPP found that Obama leads by 52 points (76/24) among those who have voted
already.
2. Registration numbers strongly favor President Obama:
 Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either
female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino – all demographics that
strongly favor President Obama.
 Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012 – and
the same percentage among those who have already voted – live in counties that
President Obama won in 2008.
3. Early vote numbers strongly favor President Obama:
 More than half (55 percent) of the early-vote ballots requested so far this year have
been requested by women, 3 percentage points greater than 2008 early voters.
 582,402 ballots have been requested this year from precincts that Obama won in
2008, 33,414 more than in from precincts that McCain won.
 The total number of votes already cast this year (both by mail and in-person) from
precincts Obama won in 2008 is 261,304 – 55,636 more than from precincts McCain
won. D


More HERE

NEVADA:

Jon Ralston Twitter

Clark County early vote numbers in - 18,388 Dems. 9,588 Republicans. 55-29%. Similar to '08
but bigger raw vote lead


Look at the rest of his tweets and bask in the glow of imminent VICTORY:

The Democrats are crushing the Republicans


That's some pretty damned good news that the polls and media aren't catching.

So quit yer bitchin' and GOTV!!!



52 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
I am very hopeful! barnabas63 Oct 2012 #1
Thank you for this information. I must shamefully admit... cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #2
Don't worry about the stupid polls. GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #5
republicans are fucking them up. barbtries Oct 2012 #48
This is wonderful! DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #3
me too! bluemarkers Oct 2012 #13
Be sure to remember: a straight ticket doesn't include the Prez -- so vote struggle4progress Oct 2012 #17
when i voted Saturday barbtries Oct 2012 #47
Be sure to remember: a straight ticket doesn't include the Prez -- so vote struggle4progress Oct 2012 #16
Okay thank you I will be sure to check that. DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #24
. struggle4progress Oct 2012 #34
Hi, I just saw this. Thank you so very much!!! :) DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #42
Here's your link for the judges - at the bottom of the page. bornskeptic Oct 2012 #36
Thank you for this! DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #43
Happy First Vote!! LiberalElite Oct 2012 #26
Thank you :) Kinda nervous but can't wait. DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #44
polls... SCliberal091294 Oct 2012 #4
How accurate has early voting been history to who wins a state? ShadowLiberal Oct 2012 #6
GOTV! GOTV! wildeyed Oct 2012 #7
Thank you!!! Go Get 'em!!! Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #28
they're giving me the % above last time, but what is the usual percentage of the electorate to early NMDemDist2 Oct 2012 #8
Still two weeks until the election so will have to wait to know that. LisaL Oct 2012 #9
Keep a positive outlook! longship Oct 2012 #10
Keep bumping this thread... Charlotte Little Oct 2012 #11
LOL. Turns out it was a head fake: Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #14
Now I feel like going to the polls and not sending in my ballot but the polls are not even open Maraya1969 Oct 2012 #12
Aren't the polls going to open soon? LisaL Oct 2012 #18
GOTV! nt ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #15
I've been saying OFA has a very strong ground game in NC. Nice to see the data! mnhtnbb Oct 2012 #19
GOTTA KEEP THIS GOING RIGHT TO ELECTION DAY !! DON'T LET UP ! GOTV !! RBInMaine Oct 2012 #20
ledge walker here MFM008 Oct 2012 #21
Awesome stats, especially stoked about OH and NC VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #22
Is this what a troll free thread looks like? Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #23
excellent K/R Tribetime Oct 2012 #25
OBAMA 2012! michello Oct 2012 #27
K & R n/t BlueStateBlue Oct 2012 #29
Thanks for the stats. Jennicut Oct 2012 #30
I have his back, and four other dems will be voting with me. juajen Oct 2012 #31
With a huge number of people voting, if they don't count early ballots, we will figure it out! LisaL Oct 2012 #32
The North Carolina Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Governor are all DEMOCRATS. NCarolinawoman Oct 2012 #38
Go North Carolina! VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #33
I hope the weather just plain sucks in some of these swing states on election day Motown_Johnny Oct 2012 #35
Ok, a little weird but I'll take it!!!! Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #37
Think about it a minute Motown_Johnny Oct 2012 #45
Wow, this is awesome... GetTheRightVote Oct 2012 #39
fantastic News . We need to get out the vote outsideworld Oct 2012 #40
Maximumnegro, thanks for compiling it all. David Zephyr Oct 2012 #41
NC going blue again barbtries Oct 2012 #46
We will go blue again if the early trend continues obamanut2012 Oct 2012 #49
yeah, i'd like that. barbtries Oct 2012 #50
Not a hand wringer, but a breath holder ... starting to exhale ... Great News !!! libdem4life Oct 2012 #51
K & R Wednesdays Oct 2012 #52
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