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2016 Postmortem

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DanTex

(20,709 posts)
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:04 AM Mar 2016

Re: Trump's going to beat Hillary!!!11!11 [View all]

Whenever you hear this, the most important thing to remember is that up until two days ago, the very same people were promising that Bernie was going to be the nominee. They predicted that Hillary could only win in confederate states. And before that, they predicted that AA voters were going to be cured of their Stockholm Syndrome by Cornel West, and that Bernie would triumph on Super Tuesday. And before that they predicted that he would win Iowa -- and even after he had already lost Iowa, they still insisted that he won. For months before that they insisted that random sampling polls were corporatist propaganda, and the "will of the people" spoke through clickbait polls and facebook likes.

So, needless to say, the predictive track-record of Hillary-bashers ranks somewhere in the neighborhood of Bill Kristol and Dick Morris. IMO, they should stick to predicting things like whether the sun will rise tomorrow, where I think they'd have at least a 75% shot of being right. But if you're looking for GE predictions, the last place to go is people who have just been proven wrong over and over and over.

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