2016 Postmortem

DLnyc

(2,479 posts) Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:48 PM Mar 2016

In case anyone is interested in the delegates gained tonight (rather than states) [View all]

Although we all get into the excitement of winning and losing states, the Democratic nomination is apparently to be decided by delegates, not by number of states won. Winning a state by a couple of percentage points does not net you a lot more delegates. And in fact you could come out 'winning' a state but getting fewer delegates, due to the algorithms different states use. Here are numbers I have found so far, on Green Papers:

. . . . Clinton . . . Sanders
FL___93_______57
NC___61______46
OH__78_______65
IL___43_______49
MO__31_______34
___________________
___306_______251

So looks like Clinton will increase her lead by about 50 or 60 delegates, not quite the wipeout that some people are trying to make it seem like. Interesting to me is that Sanders may come out of Illinois with more delegates than Hillary despite that we will be told he 'lost' that state.

edit to add: and apparently we will also be told she 'won' Missouri, although it looks like Sanders will get more delegates!

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In case anyone is interested in the delegates gained tonight (rather than states) [View all] DLnyc Mar 2016 OP

thank you for this! New Earth Mar 2016 #1

Yes, not at all a wipeout. We were told she would close all chances for Sanders tonight. DLnyc Mar 2016 #9

They were saying on CNN and MSNBC that she would get AT LEAST 100 more after tonight. FourScore Mar 2016 #55

Those numbers are wrong. Clinton swept all the states . . . brush Mar 2016 #42

It's not. With all of her advantages, it shows what a weak candidate she is. Skwmom Mar 2016 #2

Not really radical noodle Mar 2016 #8

Obamas lead was never close jcgoldie Mar 2016 #18

So she certainly isn't a weak candidate radical noodle Mar 2016 #26

Hillary Clinton is NO Obama. People could believe in Obama b/c he had no real record. Alas, Skwmom Mar 2016 #24

the popular vote would suggest otherwise DrDan Mar 2016 #61

Thank you. Consoling news! oldandhappy Mar 2016 #3

yeah bernie won griffi94 Mar 2016 #4

With The Entire Media Aligned Against Him scottie55 Mar 2016 #49

lol lmbradford Mar 2016 #5

Interesting news. Thanks for posting this. n/t winter is coming Mar 2016 #6

Those aren't complete numbers... SidDithers Mar 2016 #7

That's more like it. Thanks. Gregorian Mar 2016 #15

Yes, not complete, we'll see how much she might get DLnyc Mar 2016 #34

.... Hiraeth Mar 2016 #46

Looks like she will only win IL by 1%. (I don't know how to predict the delegate count. kath Mar 2016 #10

Here is a link DLnyc Mar 2016 #35

That's a far smaller spread than I expected. Gregorian Mar 2016 #11

Note to self: 2,382 Gregorian Mar 2016 #21

OK thanx for the math marions ghost Mar 2016 #12

#berniemath is different from real math...nt SidDithers Mar 2016 #13

Still, not too bad marions ghost Mar 2016 #20

Those are incomplete numbers Godhumor Mar 2016 #14

See my post #37 DLnyc Mar 2016 #37

Because that is how it works. Try the NY Times tool Godhumor Mar 2016 #41

Sanders is 320 behind nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #16

I get 262 at the moment. DLnyc Mar 2016 #38

That is why I wait for the morning nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #39

So if I get this right it looks like a defeat NOT a beat down. PFunk1 Mar 2016 #17

yes, go directly to the state government pages hopemountain Mar 2016 #51

By the way this is a nice site nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #19

nice, thanks DLnyc Mar 2016 #40

Thanks Nadin. 840high Mar 2016 #56

I Thought Ohio & Florida Are Winner Take All States? Corey_Baker08 Mar 2016 #22

All Democratic primaries are proportional. Codeine Mar 2016 #25

for R's DrDan Mar 2016 #62

Those numbers are running behind. nt Codeine Mar 2016 #23

The issue of declaring wins in a state based on the vote total has long since been settled. StevieM Mar 2016 #27

CNN just had tonight's delegate count at 297-194 n/t BernieforPres2016 Mar 2016 #28

Thanks. We're still in the fight. All the way to the convention. liberal_at_heart Mar 2016 #29

This is inaccurate. Why do folks persist in posting inaccurate information. onenote Mar 2016 #30

For the sake of accuracy how many is 'nearly 700' in actual hard numbers? Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #64

691 to be exact onenote Mar 2016 #66

Now for the truth. Hillary picked up 390 pledged delegates tonight. Good evening. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #31

Good temp info! We'll get the final shakeout tomorrow, I'm sure. n/t JimDandy Mar 2016 #32

You are lying GusBob Mar 2016 #33

Yes, winning is mostly a psychological boost, Waiting For Everyman Mar 2016 #36

EXACTLY! RoccoR5955 Mar 2016 #43

Exactly! justaddh2o Mar 2016 #48

Interesting discussion. We'll see what the numbers are when the dust clears. DLnyc Mar 2016 #44

NYT reporting completely different numbers. Cryptoad Mar 2016 #45

yes - total descrepancy even at the hopemountain Mar 2016 #57

If that's the reality you want to manufacture to cope... Stand and Fight Mar 2016 #47

And hopefully RoccoR5955 Mar 2016 #60

You're saying something without saying anything at all. Congrats! :D Stand and Fight Mar 2016 #67

Right RoccoR5955 Mar 2016 #68

I've never been good with remember nonsense. Okay? Stand and Fight Mar 2016 #69

Okay, RoccoR5955 Mar 2016 #70

These numbers are still working out. Cassiopeia Mar 2016 #50

K & R AzDar Mar 2016 #52

Current AP delegate award: (+326) to (+220) ucrdem Mar 2016 #53

kr Norrin Radd Mar 2016 #54

Like I posted just now in another thread, it's not "winner take all".... Spitfire of ATJ Mar 2016 #58

The edit is the best part. Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #59

FYI: delegate allocations are not complete. Adrahil Mar 2016 #63

These numbers are not even close jcgoldie Mar 2016 #65