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In the discussion thread: Romney's debate bounce is bullshit. [View all]

Response to Cosmocat (Reply #38)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:20 AM

40. But they are

"But, there are just too many polls showing the same kinds of stuff."

...right leaning polls. There hasn't been any major polls showing a dramatic shift. Even PPP's WI poll that showed the race narrowing, showed a gain among Republicans.

Obama lead down to 2 in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

There's not much doubt it was Romney's strong debate performance on Wednesday night that's given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama was the winner. Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48% with a negative one. That's up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last poll.

The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.

There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election. Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and 63% of GOP voters saying they were 'very excited' to vote this fall. Now the Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of 'very excited' voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.

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If Obama is staying steady and winning independents by the same pre-debate margin, Romney's plus is all Republicans.

Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers


The major polls showed little to no shift.

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

CNN/Opinion Research

Obama 51, Romney 47

Obama +4

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama


Obama 51, Romney 45

Obama +6

Colorado: Romney vs. Obama


Romney 48, Obama 47

Romney +1

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama


Obama 47, Romney 48

Romney +1

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama


Obama 51, Romney 46

Obama +5

Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama


Obama 50, Romney 47

Obama +3

Five myths about political polls

By Jon Cohen, Published: October 12


2. Polls prove that the first presidential debate upended the race.

Immediately after the debate, coverage focused on polls that moved in Romney’s direction. After all, a Gallup survey showed that 72 percent of debate-watchers said Romney did a better job, the most lopsided debate readout Gallup has ever recorded.

But there is little evidence that the debate decisively moved the needle in key swing states. In six state surveys released Thursday by two well-regarded polling partnerships — NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist and CBS-New York Times-Quinnipiac — there were virtually no shifts for either candidate compared with pre-debate polls.

Nationally, the debate effect may have quickly faded. In Washington Post-ABC News polling after last week’s face-off, voters had more positive reactions to Romney on the first two nights after the debate than on the next two. In Gallup tracking, the post-debate tally is nearly identical to what it was in the preceding days. And one new Florida poll shows momentum for Romney, but another doesn’t.

The presidential race has long been characterized as tightly competitive and voters as overwhelmingly locked-in. The first debate seems to have done little to alter these basic, well-documented story lines.

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ProSense Oct 2012 OP
Blue Owl Oct 2012 #1
neverland_pirate Oct 2012 #2
ProSense Oct 2012 #7
Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #31
jillan Oct 2012 #3
neverland_pirate Oct 2012 #5
ProSense Oct 2012 #8
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bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #6
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powergirl Oct 2012 #12
Maeve Oct 2012 #13
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #14
ProSense Oct 2012 #15
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zbdent Oct 2012 #16
Jennicut Oct 2012 #17
speedoo Oct 2012 #18
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #20
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #21
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #25
ProSense Oct 2012 #33
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #38
LineLineLineLineLineLineLineNew Reply But they are
ProSense Oct 2012 #40
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #19
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #22
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #26
allrevvedup Oct 2012 #43
creon Oct 2012 #23
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #27
creon Oct 2012 #37
FBaggins Oct 2012 #28
ProSense Oct 2012 #32
TroyD Oct 2012 #35
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ywcachieve Oct 2012 #29
TroyD Oct 2012 #34
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #39
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