2016 Postmortem

Mutiny In Heaven

(550 posts)

1. I think this is an excellent post

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:35 PM

Oct 2012

Don't get me wrong, I'm not an optimist by nature; I suspect that if held today, the election would be extremely close, with the popular breaking narrowly for Romney.

However, Silver's model looks like it's been imbibing, so all-over-the-place it has been.

The big question I have with regards the entire election is whether the pollsters have the LV judged correctly. This week, we've seen polls that show Obama anywhere from 2 to 6 points up among registered voters, but lagging by a couple when the LV screen is applied. It would be more or less unprecedented for a President to be defeated with such numbers.

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Silver's flawed assessment of this race. [View all] Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 OP

I think this is an excellent post Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #1

Silver sways and shifts day to freakin' day. Don't listen to all that daily chatter. Just noise. RBInMaine Oct 2012 #2

Background please. Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #3

More like 97% aletier_v Oct 2012 #11

Some people are confusing the NOW CAST TroyD Oct 2012 #12

a few weeks?? MFM008 Oct 2012 #4

I think a big part of the problem is that Nate is used to doing baseball statistics, gkhouston Oct 2012 #5

Thank you for all your hard work on this post. Excellent points! cheriemedium59 Oct 2012 #6

Just posted by Nate Silver: TroyD Oct 2012 #7

Is NS a political animal as well as a statistician? ailsagirl Oct 2012 #8

Even Nate has admitted I believe that Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #9

That's how I see it. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #14

'the worst thing he can do is undersell Obama.' TroyD Oct 2012 #10

Are you really asking that? Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #13

I used to read 538 regularly in 2008 Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #15

Let us not let this guy panic us or for that matter comfort us treestar Oct 2012 #16