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Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:48 PM

Tracking polls too closely affects Voter Enthusiasm which in turn affect Election Results [View all]

See, I personally believe that posting poll after poll after poll, every hour one comes out, ends up doing a disservice to our chances in winning this election. Know that I'm saying this regardless of whether those polls are going up,up, up, or are coming down, down, down.

I believe that there is a direct correlation between polling direction and voters enthusiasm and election results and that this small circular situation feeds upon itself. Polls results creates a particular environment for voter enthusiasm, which in itself can help make the actual results of an election a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I have read many times at this site that consistent great upward bound poll numbers can lull activists and voters into a false sense of complacency. Although Voter enthusiasm certainly can grow due to positive upward polling, there is also a danger that some voters may simply figure that even if they decide not to bother and vote, their candidate still "has this"....and that could affect our election results if not enough folks show up for the ultimate poll.

Well, as polls lower, a similar result can occur, as the trajectory of polls can also affects voters' enthusiasm to go and vote. Sure, while some folks might end up working extra hard to try and reverse the trend of those polls, there is that thin line, were many others become dispirited and lose some of the drive they need to get out there and make a difference.

Currently, we are in the middle of early voting in many states, and the drive to cast an early ballot can be dimmed as folks start seeing a trend that doesn't favor their candidate. Some may decide to wait and see what happens before casting their votes; especially those who are soft supporters. the media knows this well, and so should we.

It is true that some will dismiss this OP and just believe that posting polls at some political forum has no effect in the real world. In fact, many of the same folks also believe that posting on a political internet site has no bearing on any of our politics at all. Well, I have and always will disagree with that notion that we make no difference, because I believe that we make quite a bit of a difference.

There is a reason that Big Bird as an issue is growing, and that stories of Romney's alleged cheating at the debates is getting some traction with some new sites. There is a reason that media talking heads emphasize on their shows that Obama supporters were deeply disappointed by Pres. Obama's debate performance. How do these talking heads know this? Because they have read it in the Tweets, the blogs and the FB. Don't think that the level of activists' enthusiasm is not measured by the media and the opposition trolling Internet sites such as DU and KOS, because that is exactly where they get quite a bit of their information. It isn't an accident that Republicans constantly talk about disappointed Obama voters. That word "disappointed" was overly used throughout Obama's nearly 4 years in office for just about everything that he did or said or didn't do or neglected to say.

Our media and those who work to influence our elections are quite aware that if active Internet partisans are becoming even a bit discouraged, that there is a very good chance of a resulting ripple effect that eventually will get to the general voters who aren't quite as vested.

In a way, the Republicans had the right idea in terms of telling their folks not to believe all of the polls. Not so much because all of the polls with bad news must be skewed or biased, but because bad polling can dampen enthusiasm, and the level of enthusiasm is crucial to a candidate's ground game and winning election. It appears that Republicans understand this, and we would be wise to understand the same.

SO yes, it is entirely possible that living by poll numbers which are inching downward can have a positive stimulating effect that combats over-confidence....but at some point, that downward effect can become a self fulfilling prophecy, which psychologically make it harder for activists to want to get out there and make a difference, as their job becomes that much harder in terms of the level energy they will have to muster when working in a campaign.

So, I for one, will not be reading certain threads here at DU that are posting polls for the next several days, and if I start seeing too many poll result headlines, I may have to excuse myself from this site altogether for a short while. You see, I like my current voter enthusiasm as it is just fine, and I don't want anything to drag it down. The results of this election are too important to me and to my family and to this nation's future for me to live or die by any poll other than the one that will take place on November 6. I want Democrats to win the Presidency, retain the senate and take back the house. I'm not sure if looking at downward polls is going to help me be more Fired up than I currently am. I don't have energy to spare to do battle with the insidious effect that looking at a bunch of polls gathered by a bunch of unreliable and/or reliable polling outfits might have on me. I can't take that chance of feeding into a possible self-prophecy that may eventually lead to an election result that would be extremely detrimental to our world's long term well being.

Make no mistake; this election result will impact the lives of all Americans, and the world beyond. None of what comes before this election (especially so close leading to it) is a game meant to entertain us in anyway. I also don't believe that posting polls and commenting on them endlessly is to be considered as "activism" that will get us where we want to go. It is a passive activity at best. I know that if I am ever asked, "what did you do to help our candidates get elected", my answer won't be....."I monitored the polling".

When someone in the real world has asked me about the polls, my answer has always been....."I'm too busy trying to get my party elected to find the time to read up on all of the results which appears to be changing by the minute, based on nothing more than an aggressive media which refuses to put the country before their profits".

Thanks for reading.....

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Reply Tracking polls too closely affects Voter Enthusiasm which in turn affect Election Results [View all]
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 OP
Jackpine Radical Oct 2012 #1
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #2
TroyD Oct 2012 #3
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #4
TroyD Oct 2012 #5
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #6
courseofhistory Oct 2012 #7
lunatica Oct 2012 #8
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #9
TroyD Oct 2012 #10
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #11
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #13
heaven05 Oct 2012 #12
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #14
Major Hogwash Oct 2012 #15
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #16