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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The most accurate Iowa Democratic poll has just come out! [View all]NowSam
(1,252 posts)56. Okay so we can safely say that at least 42% of Iowans polled
Stand with Bernie. Margin of error is 4% and the poll got 2012 wrong in regards to Romney & Santorum?
Add to that - that Bernie is filling stadiums and the other is playing half filled cafeterias...I'd say there is serious desire for change in 2016. Bernie said it - IF turn out is big than he wins. If the status quo prevails in Iowa there are still three tickets out of there - if we believe conventional wisdom. If we believe the conventional wisdom of this poll than we can believe the 3 tickets out of Iowa adage.
Than New Hampshire goes to Bernie and then it is neck and neck all the way through BUT I think Bernie is David and the system is Goliath. If memory serves, David surpassed expectations against Goliath.
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I have edited my original post above to include links to a Politico article about accuracy
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#46
GO BERNIE!!!! SoundS fantastic to me. Going from zero to nearly tied is INCREDIBLE!
nc4bo
Jan 2016
#3
Actually they call enough young people with cell phones to get a good sample
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#45
It will be quite interesting to watch results. If general election is so close, I will need meds.
Hoyt
Jan 2016
#7
“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,”
DemocratSinceBirth
Jan 2016
#10
And where does O'Malley's 3% go when he fails to reach the 15% threshold?
thesquanderer
Jan 2016
#16
Just because the results are within the poll's Margin of Error (or MoE)....
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#39
That wasn't the Des Moines Register poll - The DMR poll was the only one to call that race right
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#29