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2016 Postmortem

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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 06:57 PM Jan 2016

For Bookmark and posterity purposes, make your Iowa vote percentage prediction [View all]

Or, if you're feeling really bold, your delegate count prediction, but I think share of vote is probably easier.

So general rules for the thread, if you would be so kind:

1 post each. If between now and the caucus your prediction changes, just edit your previous post.

Not looking for commentary on how you feel about other people's predictions. This is for looking back after the caucus and seeing who is closest to reality.

Use whatever criteria you want to make your decision, but you don't have to explain it. Feel free to keep it to just numbers if you're so inclined.

I will try and keep this thread bumped between now and the day of the caucus so everyone who wants to play can.

And, as the thread starter, I'll put my prediction in the subject line of the first reply.

36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
HRC - 52% SBS - 42% MOM - 6% n/t Godhumor Jan 2016 #1
will MOM get 6% dlwickham Jan 2016 #4
BS: 58% HC: 34% MOM: 8% Kentonio Jan 2016 #2
SBS- 47% HRC - 45% MOM - 8% JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #3
Understand that if O'Malley doesn't clear 15%, he'll be reported as 0. brooklynite Jan 2016 #5
Right, why just went with vote share as percentage instead of by share to delegates Godhumor Jan 2016 #7
Just to make this clear ISUGRADIA Jan 2016 #14
HRC 49; BS 47; MO 4. nt SunSeeker Jan 2016 #6
Sanders 51%, Clinton 43%, O'Malley 6% Odin2005 Jan 2016 #8
BS-55%,HRC-39%,MOM-6%, n/t winter is coming Jan 2016 #9
I'll go HRC 52 - Bernie 48 underpants Jan 2016 #10
I predict Sanders will win. LWolf Jan 2016 #11
Bernie: 51%, Hillary 45%, O'Malley 4% ram2008 Jan 2016 #12
SBS - 51%, HRC - 35%, MOM - 14% edgineered Jan 2016 #13
bs 51% mom 26% hrc 23% nt restorefreedom Jan 2016 #15
Whoa! We have an outlier here! elias49 Jan 2016 #17
thinking maybe 2008 deja vu with hillary coming third restorefreedom Jan 2016 #19
Ah, yes! The sweet aroma of memories! elias49 Jan 2016 #20
he has a good future no matter what happens now, imo. nt restorefreedom Jan 2016 #21
48 to 48 percent to 4 percent.....In other words, I haven't a clue Armstead Jan 2016 #16
Hillary-52.5% Sanders 47.5% Martin 0% hrmjustin Jan 2016 #18
SBS 52% HRC 48% mahina Jan 2016 #22
If I were a betting man, I would pick HRC to win. I will work hard to JRLeft Jan 2016 #23
I'll predict the media spin: Favorable to Hillary, Unfavorable to Bernie no matter the outcome. Skwmom Jan 2016 #24
1 week out bump Godhumor Jan 2016 #25
Bernie 55%, Hillary 45% (O'Malley voters <15% so mostly go to Bernie) PatrickforO Jan 2016 #26
Sanders 50%, Clinton 47% O'Malley 3% berni_mccoy Jan 2016 #27
Bernie 53%. Hillary 46% Martin 1% n/t Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #28
Sanders 60(+)%, Clinton 35%, O'Malley 5% Half-Century Man Jan 2016 #29
Clinton 4086%, Sanders 317%, MOM 2.64% randome Jan 2016 #30
Again: OilemFirchen Jan 2016 #31
Kicking this with an update. OilemFirchen Jan 2016 #32
An evening before the caucus bump n/t Godhumor Jan 2016 #33
Bernie 49.8 Hillary 49.7 O'Malley 0.4 Uncommited 0.1 jfern Jan 2016 #34
Bernie 48% Hillary 47% Martin 5% Rosa Luxemburg Jan 2016 #35
HRC: 52%; BS: 40%; MO'M: 8% alcibiades_mystery Jan 2016 #36
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