2016 Postmortem

S_E_Fudd

(1,295 posts)

6. Well if you read it...

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:12 PM

Sep 2012

He says quite clearly he has built in extra skepticism on Obamas numbers

The downward adjustment to Mr. Obama’s numbers will gradually fade out over the next week or so. Thus, if he holds his current position in the polls, he will begin to regain ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

However, it is probably not a bad idea to take a slightly skeptical view toward Mr. Obama’s polls in the meantime. This is a tricky year for estimating convention bounces, with the two parties having held their conventions just one week apart, but if the model is reading the data wrongly, it will correct itself soon enough.

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Nate Silver: Forget Quinnipiac. Obama is behind on Rasmussen [View all] Blue Yorker Sep 2012 OP

Total bull HERVEPA Sep 2012 #1

I read his posts every single day, and have for 4+ years. Dawgs Sep 2012 #9

Geez. His Nowcast has Obama at over 90% HERVEPA Sep 2012 #11

So you agree with me? Dawgs Sep 2012 #17

Uh, no. HERVEPA Sep 2012 #19

Ah, you're arguing something that has nothing to do with this thread. Dawgs Sep 2012 #21

OK. I understand what you're saying, HERVEPA Sep 2012 #25

Uh...Nate dropped the "Now-cast" yesterday... regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #27

What do you mean by "dropped the now-cast"? It's still there, and gives President Obama a Grown2Hate Sep 2012 #33

Obama is not behind in Rasmussen TexasCPA Sep 2012 #2

We all know that Rasmussen is a right-wing polling group... CoffeeCat Sep 2012 #4

I pay more attention to Intrade TexasCPA Sep 2012 #8

Well. Intrade has Obama lower than Nate. HERVEPA Sep 2012 #12

Intrade is not trying to predict a win or loss for the candidate abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #31

I understood that HERVEPA Sep 2012 #34

My understanding was not the Election contracts. nt abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #36

welcome to DU grantcart Sep 2012 #23

Silver is a bum...until the next time he writes something pro-Obama. WI_DEM Sep 2012 #3

Exactly. Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #14

Disappointed in Nate Silver since he moved to the NYTImes woolldog Sep 2012 #5

I agree, he's too wishy-washy now Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #7

He's wishy washy because the polls are dynamic. They only give us a snapshot in time. Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #13

It's pretty sad when people like you and me can see that without OH and VA, Romney has no shot. Dawgs Sep 2012 #10

I guess we need to skip the analysis fugop Sep 2012 #15

Some polls have narrowed, but some of the state polls are taking off for Obama (ie. VA and MI). Dawgs Sep 2012 #16

Romney is toast without OH and VA. Jennicut Sep 2012 #28

Well if you read it... S_E_Fudd Sep 2012 #6

This analysis is all over the place NHDEMFORLIFE Sep 2012 #18

Nate gets paid more in a horse race. MjolnirTime Sep 2012 #20

Exactly. My guess is that it has something to with page hits. n/t Dawgs Sep 2012 #22

His blog is garbage. You are quite observant in realizing why TheDonkey Sep 2012 #24

Oh well november3rd Sep 2012 #26

If nothing else it shows he has no liberal bias as some have claimed. aaaaaa5a Sep 2012 #29

Silver's always done a fantastic job but I think he's slipping up a bit. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #30

Romney basically needs the equivalent of a straight flush to win this fujiyama Sep 2012 #32

Rasmussen claims Romney is +3 in IOWA today TroyD Sep 2012 #35