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Response to at140 (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 03:25 PM

1. 75,000 in Wuhan infected with coronavirus: study estimates

I have no idea how accurate their estimate may be - the full article in The Lancet is available here.

From MedicalXpress:

...

"We estimate that 75,815 individuals have been infected in Wuhan as of January 25, 2020," a team led by Gabriel Leung from the University of Hong Kong reported in The Lancet.

...

"The apparent discrepancy between our modelled estimates of 2019-nCoV infections and the actual number of confirmed cases in Wuhan could be due to several factors," Leung said in a statement.

A time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons getting medical treatment, and the time needed to confirm cases with lab tests "could all affect overall recording and reporting," he said.

The study found that each person infected with the virus, which emerged in December, could have infected two to three individuals on average, and that the epidemic had doubled in size every 6.4 days.

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