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Creative Speculation

Make7

(8,543 posts)

12. "The reason Trump has a 30% chance and not a 15% chance, or 10% chance..."

Reply to a kennedy (Original post)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 12:39 AM

Sep 2020

... is because of the Electoral College." ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=8m5s&v=T7XcqSv6YSQ )

"There are scenarios where Biden could win the popular vote by four and a half points and still lose the Electoral College..." ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=9m26s&v=T7XcqSv6YSQ )

NateSilver538

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statuses/1301190941110341632

Strange that people think the Electoral College works in Trump's favor – in 2016 he lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, yet somehow received more votes in the Electoral College.

Biden is favored to win the election

Biden wins 71 in 100
Trump wins 29 in 100

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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and seriously WHAT THE HELL IS THIS SHIT FROM 538...... [View all] a kennedy Sep 2020 OP

The polls won't have reflected the Atlantic article disaster yet. The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2020 #1

Even so, what is this country's excuse? dchill Sep 2020 #2

That anybody voted for that clown for any reason will always baffle me. The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2020 #3

Thanks Velveteen.......I always respect your posts, and opinions. a kennedy Sep 2020 #4

I don't buy anything from 538 anymore. Look at what he did during the dem primaries Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #5

I wasn't following his coverage of the primaries. What did he do? Squinch Sep 2020 #6

After the first caucus nights in IA & NH 538 said that sanders would win 49 states Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #8

Thank you. I feel better. But, seriously? He fell for that youth vote Lucy football? Wow. Squinch Sep 2020 #10

Yes! People think silver is a dem..he is not! A self ascribed libertarian Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #11

Thank you. I'll check it out. Squinch Sep 2020 #13

Nope. At worst it is a tie via the electoral college. Cook currently shows Biden leading in the still_one Sep 2020 #7

Thank you...voice of sanity Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #9

I agree... TrumpVirus Sep 2020 #14

"The reason Trump has a 30% chance and not a 15% chance, or 10% chance..." Make7 Sep 2020 #12