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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
8. You are misinterpreting the graph.
Fri Feb 8, 2013, 01:46 PM
Feb 2013

This isn't about population growth, it's about the maximum period of "sustainability".

Perhaps I could phrase it better as the maximum period before obvious unsustainability: "The maximum time a given population at a fixed level of technology/affluence can exist before the first sign of involuntary population decline appears."

Essentially this refers to how long a population/consumption combination can last before it hits reach the peak of the bell curve you're used to seeing.

How long that period is depends on the level of consumption technology or affluence, which is the isomorphic to the drawdown of natural capital. The drawdown of natural capital is the sum of the non-recoverable use of non-renewable resources plus the use of renewable resources above the natural replenishment rate. This amounts to a re-statement of the I=PAT equation.

I assume that the Earth has a fixed capacity for absorbing human impact. That means that when we have been around long enough to generate that much impact, we will begin to go away. What that maximum capacity is, is also open to debate.

The time period after we hit that MaxImpact point, during which our population declines, forms the other half of the bell curve you' saw in Bio.

The maximum impact point under current conditions could (perhaps) be estimated by balancing global warming, fresh water drawdown, the EROI of fossil fuels, and the unaided average productivity of agricultural land (without the help of nitrogen fertilizers or irrigation).

A look at human sustainability [View all] GliderGuider Feb 2013 OP
"estimated the sustainability period" phantom power Feb 2013 #1
Not just out of the air GliderGuider Feb 2013 #2
50/50 joshcryer Feb 2013 #3
Our survival odds? nt GliderGuider Feb 2013 #4
sustainability prospects joshcryer Feb 2013 #5
Interesting. I put our sustainability prospects at 0. GliderGuider Feb 2013 #9
I don't see technology going away. joshcryer Feb 2013 #10
In that case your time horizons aren't out far enough. GliderGuider Feb 2013 #11
I think after the great reset we'll be more rational about resource use. joshcryer Feb 2013 #12
There's a highly significant gap in Ferhout's list of influences GliderGuider Feb 2013 #13
I think you should check out his rebuttal to Kurzweil. joshcryer Feb 2013 #14
Jesus, that wasn't a rebuttal GliderGuider Feb 2013 #16
I think the "why" is the nature of authority. joshcryer Feb 2013 #17
How do you break the hold of the system if you don't fully understand the system? GliderGuider Feb 2013 #18
"Why" is a great question. It helps us figure out the "what." joshcryer Feb 2013 #19
A bit of resistance is never a bad idea. GliderGuider Feb 2013 #20
Interesting, would like to see this fleshed out with more data. eppur_se_muova Feb 2013 #6
Me too. This is just a mental doodle now, but it could be interesting to develop it more. nt GliderGuider Feb 2013 #15
I seem to recall something more like a bell curve in my Biology class Flying Squirrel Feb 2013 #7
You are misinterpreting the graph. GliderGuider Feb 2013 #8
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