Jevons: a 19th Century Zeno

[OKIsItJustMe]

41. Can you document this? (i.e. that more efficient cars lead to more consumption.)

http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2011/03/green-cars-jevons-paradox

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Do Green Cars Just Make People Drive More?[/font]
—By Kiera Butler | Mon Mar. 7, 2011 2:30 AM PST

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Furthermore, Matt Mattila, who leads RMI's effort to help cities transition to electric cars, points out that the limiting factor for driving isn't fuel consumption, but rather time spent behind the weel. "Drivers generally don't know their vehicles' fuel economy, but if they did see it improve, they wouldn't 'balance' that out by trying to find more time in the vehicle," says Mattila.

Building on that idea, Simon Mui, a scientist who studies electric cars at the Natural Resources Defense Council, calls the notion of attributing increased driving to gains in fuel efficiency "mind-boggling." Because of population increase, rising incomes, sprawl, and increased car ownership rates, vehicle miles traveled has gone up both in the US and abroad, says Mui. "This has happened even when fuel economy was flat (or even worsening because of SUVs) in the US over the past three decades."

Still, there's a kernel of truth to the Jevons Paradox argument. When talking about fuel-efficient cars, it's important to distinguish between the rebound effect and the backlash effect. The rebound effect—where some savings are lost because of increased use—is well-documented, and regulators take it into account: Last year, the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration assumed a 10 percent rebound effect when they made their final ruling on emissions standards. But a backlash effect—where increased car use actually cancels out any savings gained by efficiency—has never been documented.

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