Environment & Energy

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

20. All we need to do is look at the images from AR5

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 12:05 AM

Dec 2012

And remember that we're on our way to realizing RCP 8.5

Oh, and remember to add about 1 degree to those temperatures to account for what's already in the pipeline.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/12/16/1334921/leaked-ipcc-draft-report-recent-warming-is-manmade-cloud-feedback-is-positive-inaction-is-suicidal/

But the report fails to clearly spell out what the recent science says about inaction — for that you might try “An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts” or the recent World Bank report, which warned “A 4°C (7°F) World Can, And Must, Be Avoided” To Avert “Devastating” Impacts.

The truth is out there.

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Don't believe the extremists: No Big Changes In Leaked Draft AR5 Report [View all] Nederland Dec 2012 OP

No good deed goes unpunished... nt GliderGuider Dec 2012 #1

TATMAFAATFEOWTA! LiberalEsto Dec 2012 #2

Sorry, here's glossary: Nederland Dec 2012 #3

TY! LiberalEsto Dec 2012 #4

What constitutes an "extremist"? NoOneMan Dec 2012 #5

People that make claims not supported by the peer reviewed literature Nederland Dec 2012 #6

Oh. In that case... NoOneMan Dec 2012 #7

Fair enough Nederland Dec 2012 #8

ca·tas·tro·phe - definition: NoOneMan Dec 2012 #9

Those papers are based upon outdated assumptions Nederland Dec 2012 #26

"Unprecedented Seasonal Heat" != "Hydrological Droughts" NoOneMan Dec 2012 #32

IPCC has a record of always underestimating the effects of climate change. Speck Tater Dec 2012 #10

And there's no sign that we are deviating from the highest-carbon scenarios. GliderGuider Dec 2012 #11

Its a consequence of the merger of politics and science that we see here NoOneMan Dec 2012 #12

So, as bad as it is, it's as good as we're going to get... GliderGuider Dec 2012 #13

Always? Nederland Dec 2012 #14

Yup. Link.... Speck Tater Dec 2012 #17

That report is pretty harsh on the IPCC GliderGuider Dec 2012 #19

I'm curious Nederland Dec 2012 #22

No, I don't. GliderGuider Dec 2012 #24

The models run cold Nederland Dec 2012 #28

Interesting. GliderGuider Dec 2012 #29

Here you go... Nederland Dec 2012 #33

Thank you! nt GliderGuider Dec 2012 #34

Your link only addresses sea level rise Nederland Dec 2012 #21

I stand corrected. Thanks for setting me straight. nt Speck Tater Dec 2012 #25

Not that Himilaya Glacier denier crap again Viking12 Dec 2012 #35

It seems as if the IPCC's job is to promote BAU. joshcryer Dec 2012 #16

No, its job is to summarize the current scientific consensus Nederland Dec 2012 #23

Whose job is it to draw conclusions? GliderGuider Dec 2012 #27

Ours Nederland Dec 2012 #30

How so? GliderGuider Dec 2012 #31

Sadly, that does seem to be the case. n/t AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #38

..and yours is to cherry-pick? Viking12 Dec 2012 #36

There is no scientific consensus about the effects of climate change. joshcryer Dec 2012 #44

They don't even assess drought. Hopefully that's changed before AR5 is finished. joshcryer Dec 2012 #15

The word drought appears 62 times Nederland Dec 2012 #18

Right, low confidence. See page 18 of the SPM. joshcryer Dec 2012 #43

I'm confused Nederland Dec 2012 #103

Yes, I think you're reading it wrong. GliderGuider Dec 2012 #105

In this case in particular it means they're uncertain about... joshcryer Dec 2012 #114

As GG said, "low confidence" means they are unclear, uncertain. joshcryer Dec 2012 #111

All we need to do is look at the images from AR5 GliderGuider Dec 2012 #20

Good analysis, Nederland, thanks for posting. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #37

Excuse me, has this new release dealt with, ... CRH Dec 2012 #39

Still waiting for that... GliderGuider Dec 2012 #40

IPCC reports only address peer review literature Nederland Dec 2012 #42

That was kind of my point. GliderGuider Dec 2012 #46

If you open it up to non-peer reviewed material... Nederland Dec 2012 #49

Open *what* up exactly? GliderGuider Dec 2012 #50

Ok, I misunderstood Nederland Dec 2012 #51

Yeah, pretty much. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #52

DU isn't quite the same as a public discussion GliderGuider Dec 2012 #55

Which is how I'm beginning to think the IPCC should conduct it's business as well. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #63

Huh? GliderGuider Dec 2012 #74

David Wasdell Nederland Dec 2012 #41

Why was he asked to do draft reviews for AR4? ... CRH Dec 2012 #45

"The people making these decisions are administrators and policy wonks" GliderGuider Dec 2012 #47

A very good question Nederland Dec 2012 #48

Yep. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #53

Ignorant. Viking12 Dec 2012 #56

Please, stop the provocations(Ignorant? Clowns?). AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #59

If you don't like it, don't post ignorant crap or just go away. Viking12 Dec 2012 #60

Look who's talking. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #62

It's clear you're not here to discuss in good faith. Viking12 Dec 2012 #65

Oh please, stop the hypocrisy. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #66

I was right. Viking12 Dec 2012 #67

But Malcom Light! But Malcom Light! NoOneMan Dec 2012 #68

Average Joe, you are gone hatrack Dec 2012 #70

Come on hatrack... Nederland Dec 2012 #86

Nope, sorry - and the Chicken Little cartoon was the last straw - hot-button for me hatrack Dec 2012 #90

I don't get "paid" anything. AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #69

What about lead authors? Nederland Dec 2012 #71

Are you therefore suggesting the IPCC has little credibility? NoOneMan Dec 2012 #72

No Nederland Dec 2012 #80

for instance? Viking12 Dec 2012 #73

Sorry I thought it was common knowledge at this point Nederland Dec 2012 #75

Ah. You are angry about the IPCC mosquito projections? NoOneMan Dec 2012 #76

No Nederland Dec 2012 #81

Depends NoOneMan Dec 2012 #83

Damn straight Nederland Dec 2012 #88

So you can't really provide any names. Viking12 Dec 2012 #77

So you really have no proof. Nederland Dec 2012 #82

Provide some names. Viking12 Dec 2012 #85

The names of the lead authors are on first page of every chapter. Nederland Dec 2012 #87

So which one are you suggesting isn't qualified? Viking12 Dec 2012 #91

The criticism Reiter was making was of SAR, not AR4. Nederland Dec 2012 #93

None of the people you named were authors of SAR, WG2, Chapter 18 Viking12 Dec 2012 #95

You are correct Nederland Dec 2012 #98

On what basis do you insist he is not qualified, ... CRH Dec 2012 #54

Cute, sounds like the IPCC won't include permafrost in AR5. joshcryer Dec 2012 #57

Yeah, and that is only a recommendation, ... CRH Dec 2012 #78

Those special assessments fly under the radar anyway. joshcryer Dec 2012 #79

I think clouds were once thought to be negative feedbacks, ... CRH Dec 2012 #97

I know of none historical time scale negative feedbacks. joshcryer Dec 2012 #99

I think aerosols have negative feedbacks Nederland Dec 2012 #101

Yeah, that's true, but civilization kinda hates smog. joshcryer Dec 2012 #102

Aerosols = forcing. Not feedback Viking12 Dec 2012 #106

Aerosols are both Nederland Dec 2012 #109

Actually, he does have a point. Aerosols require action by humans. joshcryer Dec 2012 #112

Thanks, my thoughts were muddled at the time. joshcryer Dec 2012 #113

"...will not be included in any of the temperature models" NoOneMan Dec 2012 #58

Isn't it perhaps possible that methane may not have as much of a impact..... AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #61

You aren't allowed to allude to that "possibility" without a leaked IPCC AR5 snippet to back you up NoOneMan Dec 2012 #64

Laud the virtues of scientific consensus? Nederland Dec 2012 #89

2 points NoOneMan Dec 2012 #104

Proof? Nederland Dec 2012 #107

Have you heard of permafrost thawing? nt NoOneMan Dec 2012 #108

Yes, and the subject is considered in this report (nt) Nederland Dec 2012 #110

He is not qualified according to the criteria Rajendra Pachauri claimed was used Nederland Dec 2012 #84

Pachauri made that statement about authors, not reviewers. Viking12 Dec 2012 #92

You are correct Nederland Dec 2012 #94

Reviewer doesn't mean author. Viking12 Dec 2012 #96

So it doesn't bother you that reviewers are often unqualified? Nederland Dec 2012 #100

David Wasdell is relevant for his criticism of scientific reticence. joshcryer Dec 2012 #115