Environment & Energy

OKIsItJustMe

(19,937 posts)

22. I'm unwilling to extrapolate out to 2100, based soley on data for the past 20-odd years

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 12:09 AM

Nov 2012

Zoom in on the trend from 1990 to 2015. Label A1F1 “IPCC ‘Worst Case’ Scenario” and I think the message comes across loud and clear.

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Actual Carbon Emissions vs. IPCC Scenarios - how far away is safety? [View all] GliderGuider Nov 2012 OP

You may want to redo this at some point. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #1

This is the curve that Bill McKibben's "Do the Math" tour is all about. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #2

Six Degrees and The God Species should be required reading for policy makers wtmusic Nov 2012 #5

To what extent do you think we could trigger another Permian extinction? cprise Nov 2012 #8

I have Ward's book - it's a terrifying read... GliderGuider Nov 2012 #16

The projections I have seen put us at over 900ppm CO2 by 2100 cprise Nov 2012 #34

I think our worst-case scenario (at the moment) is 1200 ppm by 2100. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #35

That seems too hot to avoid a drastic change in biochemistry cprise Nov 2012 #40

Mostly true, but there's a difference: AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #12

There are a number of species that lived through that level of warming cprise Nov 2012 #14

What honestly makes you think we can't? AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #15

It's actually not a compliment to the species that we survived Toba. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #23

Well, I'm now convinced that more research is needed re: Toba at any rate. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #25

I briefly told you what cprise Nov 2012 #33

I don't think you've really understood what I've been trying to say. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #36

What a bunch of sloppy posturing cprise Nov 2012 #39

Sure, sure. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #41

We probably run out of life as well before then NoOneMan Nov 2012 #6

Haven't gotten to it just yet. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #9

It would surely be the end of civilization as we know it NoOneMan Nov 2012 #11

You keep using that word "fact," XemaSab Nov 2012 #13

I know full well what I'm talking about here. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #17

That's not what you said XemaSab Nov 2012 #18

OK, I do realize I could have been clearer. However, my point does still stand. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #19

The stuff coming out of your keyboard XemaSab Nov 2012 #20

On the contrary. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #21

I'll go with the IPCC scenarios caraher Nov 2012 #3

That's your prerogative - this thumbnail assessment isn't the Truth. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #4

This message was self-deleted by its author NoOneMan Nov 2012 #7

Very true. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #10

I'm unwilling to extrapolate out to 2100, based soley on data for the past 20-odd years OKIsItJustMe Nov 2012 #22

Stopping the extrapolation at 2015 leaves far too much wiggle room for the diminishers. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #24

That’s worse! OKIsItJustMe Nov 2012 #29

The point is to present what is possibly the worst case scenario imaginable. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #30

I suggest a simple graph for 1980-2015 OKIsItJustMe Nov 2012 #31

I prefer to keep it in line with the IPCC projections that go out to 2100. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #32

Me neither. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #26

You don't trust Bill McKibben? GliderGuider Nov 2012 #27

It seems I made a mistake. I apologize. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #28

On the lighter side... caraher Nov 2012 #37

Yer not going to like my next trick very much either, then. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #38