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Response to Tansy_Gold (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2012, 08:37 AM

23. Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-04/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion.html

Joshua Shapiro, 54, chief U.S. economist at New York-based forecasting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.,... has scored the top spot among forecasters of the U.S. economy for the two-year period ended on Sept. 30, according to data compiled for the annual Bloomberg Markets ranking of global forecasters.

When Shapiro started his career in the early 1980s, the U.S. was emerging from crisis and suffering from the same symptoms it is now -- slow growth and high unemployment. What Shapiro saw two years ago, and other economists didnít, is that the healing this time would be slower. He and his firm have been among the more pessimistic forecasters of a U.S. recovery, citing data that show slow growth and relatively high joblessness persisting through 2013. Shapiro predicts the U.S. economy will grow next year by about 1.5 percent.

Shapiro sees monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve benchmark interest rate at almost zero, as having a limited near-term impact on growth. And he considers the $1 trillion U.S. fiscal deficit an important drag on future expansion...

A LOT OF SELF-CONGRATULATORY BLATHER AT LINK

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