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LiberalFighter

(50,094 posts)
30. Indiana should be roughly a 45 - 38 split for Clinton -- Net 7 delegates.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 03:48 PM
Apr 2016
Based on current data it should result in delegates as follows:

Clinton: 1,709
Sanders: 1,409
Spread: 300

Remaining Delegates: 933

Based on supposed Bernie Math that states the nominee must have the majority of combined pledged and unpledged delegates using just pledged delegates the following:

Needed pledged delegates:
Clinton: 674
Sanders: 974

Needed percent of pledged delegates:
Clinton: 72.2%
Sanders: 104.4%
Wow! More "no-mentum" on display for Sanders!! stopbush Apr 2016 #1
First is was Joe-mentum, now it's Slow-mentum. CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #2
Republicans would call this displacedtexan Apr 2016 #28
It looks like has campaign has collapsed. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2016 #3
I agree workinclasszero Apr 2016 #7
It could be finally happening! pandr32 Apr 2016 #14
Silver was a huge disappointment this cycle. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #4
He says in his 538 podcasts that primaries are hard to predict Her Sister Apr 2016 #6
Geez. Hard projections are what economists/statisticians are supposed to do. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #9
Didn't he correctly call every Dem primary on Tuesday? kstewart33 Apr 2016 #11
That's not the important part! It's the percentages that drive the primaries on the Dem side. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #12
But if you scroll down the same page as the likelihood prediction, you see distributions of spooky3 Apr 2016 #15
Ok. But those have been horribly inaccurate. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #16
How? He only got MI wrong and that was only Liberal_Stalwart71 Apr 2016 #21
I'm not sure Silver, who doesn't poll states himself, can do what you are asking. SaschaHM May 2016 #37
Ah, but he does weight his polls according to their method and track record. Buzz Clik May 2016 #38
Honestly, I kept thinking IN might be a pickup for BS. Obviously, Nate disagrees. Tarheel_Dem Apr 2016 #5
I thought so, too. okasha Apr 2016 #13
Let's hope that's the case. But Jane says that BS is about to explode with momentum. Tarheel_Dem Apr 2016 #18
You can't have the fans leaving in the seventh inning. Koinos Apr 2016 #20
Again, BSers have earned that moniker for a Liberal_Stalwart71 Apr 2016 #22
I'm not sure Sanders organized well before the deadline to register this month. SaschaHM Apr 2016 #23
I hope he's right! Cha Apr 2016 #34
Good to hear ... BlueMTexpat Apr 2016 #8
We will be seeing the results soon. Thinkingabout Apr 2016 #10
Excellent! sheshe2 Apr 2016 #17
Hurray for Hillary! (Of course Trump will say it's just that "woman card" skylucy Apr 2016 #19
Must be one of then Confederate states Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Apr 2016 #24
and this with no expenses too robbedvoter Apr 2016 #25
with 74 years of advance planning the outcome should not be in doubt! nt msongs Apr 2016 #26
California; probability of Hillary to win = 88% Maru Kitteh Apr 2016 #27
Indiana only has 83 pledged delegates that will be decided Tuesday. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #29
Indiana should be roughly a 45 - 38 split for Clinton -- Net 7 delegates. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #30
awesome :-) Maru Kitteh May 2016 #39
So Indiana is a closed Primary? Cha Apr 2016 #31
nope, it's open DemonGoddess Apr 2016 #32
Ah! thank you, DG! Cha Apr 2016 #33
But the college vote in Bloomington and West Lafayette is going to put him over the top bluestateguy Apr 2016 #35
Especially since it is exam week for colleges in Indiana. LiberalFighter May 2016 #41
But they're into the Final Exams now. George II May 2016 #42
Now up to 91% !!! Maru Kitteh May 2016 #36
The Polls Plus forecast is 91/9 with Clinton ahead by 11% George II May 2016 #40
Good to hear. I read he was catching up. SharonClark May 2016 #43
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