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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Fri May 13, 2022, 10:25 AM

3. The odds are 50-50 in NC and FL, better than that in MO and OH

Claire McCaskill got a second term from Missouri as a result of voter disapproval of the bad behavior of her opponent, and this one looks similar. If Greitens wins the GOP nomination, and it looks like that at this point, I don't believe he'll win the general election. I think Ryan may have a close race but will win more easily than the pundits think, and I think there's been enough of a shift in NC to put a Democrat into a statewide office by about 1 or 2 points.

Florida will be close, but Demmings will have two big boost in a state like that. One will be the momentum from the Roe v. Wade issue, in a state where 67% of the voters don't want Roe overturned, and the January 6th hearings. I think that's going to boost the Democrats by 4 or 5 points overall, and in most polls, she's dead even or if trailing, by just one or two points.

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nkpolitics1212 May 2022 OP
dameatball May 2022 #1
lark May 2022 #2
LineNew Reply The odds are 50-50 in NC and FL, better than that in MO and OH
lees1975 May 2022 #3
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