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Response to sonias (Original post)

Fri Jan 27, 2012, 10:46 PM

2. GOP is afraid of split primary

I was following Michael Li's twitter feed on today's hearing in the San Antonio proceeding. This feed had three or four different lawyers tweeting their impressions of the proceeding. Evidently, the judges told the audience to try to tweet is a less loud fashion. The proceeding was interesting.

These are my opinions and not from the Txredistricting.org site. First, it is clear that the Texas GOP does not want a split primary. The San Antonio Court made clear that it was strongly considering a split primary where the Presidential, US Senate and a couple of Statewide races were held on April 3 and the primary for the remaining races would be held in late May or June. A number of GOP elected officials have tea party candidates running against them in the GOP primary and a split primary would lead to low turnout for the second primary which would help the tea party candidates.

Second,it is also clear that the GOP is not doing well in the DC proceeding and is worried about losing face if the DC court rules against them. There has been some decent evidence of actual intent to discriminate produced in this trial and there is some chance that the DC Circuit could find that all of the maps were based on an actual intent to discriminate. Such a finding would hurt the State of Texas' lawsuit on the Texas voter id law in that it may show a pattern of an intent to discriminate by the Texas GOP. I have a feeling that the litigators in this case do not have a good feeling about the evidence and the reaction of the court and so think that a settlement is the safe way to go.

The Democrats do not want a split primary but they do not fear this result. I hope that the Democrats hold out for a good deal in that I think that the GOP is the party who is pushing for this settlement.
I think that it would be a mess to have a spit primary but we could cope.

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