For the first time in my life, I think a depression is conceivable

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6. i suppose anything's "conceivable", but it's highly unlikely.

and since "depression" doesn't have a precise economic definition (economists think in terms of "contraction" and "expansion" ), i suppose anyone's interpretation of a lengthy recovery could be deemed a "depression".

that said, there's every reason to think this could be one of the shortest contractions on record. the sharpest, no doubt, but also the shortest. so much has shut down so quickly, it's hard to imaging further contraction continuing for anything like the 4 solid years of contraction 1929-1933.

that's not to say unemployment returns to normal any time soon, just that the economy will likely start to expand (from its much lower level) as soon as there's any scope of break in the covid-19. this may be localized as some countries feel they have it under control and will allow limited parts of their economy to start to return to normal. well, that means more economic activity than the previous month, so that's expansion.

and obviously, any effective treatment or vaccine will speed things along.

don't get me wrong, the surreal conditions could continue for month and months; but on the other side, things should come back up to nearly normal fairly quickly, and that rapid uptick feeds on itself.