HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Editorials & Other Articles (Forum) » Something Strange Is Goin... » Reply #2

Response to Zorro (Original post)

Sat Sep 7, 2019, 04:46 PM

2. It's demographics and the people moving to Texas.

An influx of younger adults from more-liberal places (like Illinois, California, and New York) has analysts wondering whether the Lone Star State could take on a blue hue.

There is "a demographic shift in Texas as a whole, with increases in the young-adult populations, growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations and a drop in poverty."

Houston, Texas's largest city, is one of the most ethnically and racially diverse cities in the nation and like the next three biggest cities in the state San Antonio, Dallas and Austin it trends Democratic.

The new residents, especially those who move to Texas for tech work, are heavily favoring Democrats, Espinosa of Progress Texas says, pointing to a report by his organization based on voter turnout data. There were 1.5 million first-time voters in 2016, and the growth margin favored Democrats five-to-one, the report said, culling numbers from the Texas voter file. In Collin County, where Plano is located, the result was even more lopsided, with 39,209 more Democratic votes cast from 2012 to 2016, compared to just 4,126 more Republican votes. (President Donald Trump still beat Clinton by a 56-39 percent margin in Collin County.)

Millennials are far more likely to lean Democratic (59 percent do, compared to 32 percent who lean Republican, according to a Pew Research Center report earlier this year), so the movement of young people to the state is statistically likely to help Democrats. Texas is among just a few states that saw its 18- to 34-year-old population grow by more than 5 percent from 2010 to 2015, according to a report by the Brookings Institution earlier this year, with the Houston and Dallas among the top three metro areas in the country.

It's still a hard climb for Democrats in the Lone Star State, but demographic trends are slowly starting to change the landscape, Morales says. "I think at the end of the day, Texas is still the dam that holds up the Republican Party," he says. "But they're going to have to move heaven and earth to keep it red."


Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 2 replies Author Time Post
Zorro Sep 2019 OP
Wellstone ruled Sep 2019 #1
LineNew Reply It's demographics and the people moving to Texas.
Quemado Sep 2019 #2
Please login to view edit histories.