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In reply to the discussion: How Nate Silver Failed To Predict Trump [View all]bemildred
(90,061 posts)4. Statistical predictions are always based on what has happened already.
Because that's what statistics does, summarize past results mathematically, and predict what will happen today and tomorrow based on the assumption they will continue past trends.
They therefore always predict that tomorrow will look pretty much like yesterday, and they always miss real change.
I always ignore all polls. They are often right, but when they are wrong they are really wrong. And they are often wrong, it's just hard to say how beforehand.
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His play book is off, where the establishment and cohorts gave a definitive edge..he needs
Jefferson23
Mar 2016
#2
but how do you know to inform your statistic? It could seem like an outlier...
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#13
I guess that is my point. "Past is prologue" is a good general idea and a worthy warning but
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#16
we could start with fascism and its emergence and go from there...we hear so much
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#18
The best way to lead is to figure out where everybody is going and then hurry to get in front.
bemildred
Mar 2016
#31
models work until the situation changes and the past is no longer a predictor of the future
egold2604
Mar 2016
#5
and in knowing basics like how the Margin of Error is greater in a small poll size and
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#12
then the model must be adapted to the current situation and that is difficult...
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#14
The models are built by people who understand statistics then turned over to interns
egold2604
Mar 2016
#26
I am no statistician (fine arts major!) but I mentioned outliers upthread which of
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#29
I'm sure you are right, he seized the opportunity given his ego and power...he thinks
CTyankee
Mar 2016
#20
He saw an opportunity and did well with it for that period of time. I posted the OP I felt
Jefferson23
Mar 2016
#23
People are under a great deal of stress and they can react in many ways, it seemed clear
Jefferson23
Mar 2016
#24