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bemildred

(90,061 posts)
4. Statistical predictions are always based on what has happened already.
Mon Mar 7, 2016, 06:22 AM
Mar 2016

Because that's what statistics does, summarize past results mathematically, and predict what will happen today and tomorrow based on the assumption they will continue past trends.

They therefore always predict that tomorrow will look pretty much like yesterday, and they always miss real change.

I always ignore all polls. They are often right, but when they are wrong they are really wrong. And they are often wrong, it's just hard to say how beforehand.

Statistics elljay Mar 2016 #1
His play book is off, where the establishment and cohorts gave a definitive edge..he needs Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #2
MITTENS WAS SUPOSED TO WIN! the right SUFFERED MORE OBAMA! pansypoo53219 Mar 2016 #3
Statistical predictions are always based on what has happened already. bemildred Mar 2016 #4
But... but... but... malthaussen Mar 2016 #6
Don't get me started. It gets ugly. bemildred Mar 2016 #7
I love statistical analyis. malthaussen Mar 2016 #8
Theorems are a lot easier to come up with than proofs. bemildred Mar 2016 #9
but how do you know to inform your statistic? It could seem like an outlier... CTyankee Mar 2016 #13
Elaborate on that please. bemildred Mar 2016 #15
I guess that is my point. "Past is prologue" is a good general idea and a worthy warning but CTyankee Mar 2016 #16
Yes. Outliers are the problem, and emergence. bemildred Mar 2016 #17
we could start with fascism and its emergence and go from there...we hear so much CTyankee Mar 2016 #18
Yes. But that's not statistics. bemildred Mar 2016 #19
Yes...he finally was the "Man of the Moment" after trying for years... KoKo Mar 2016 #27
The best way to lead is to figure out where everybody is going and then hurry to get in front. bemildred Mar 2016 #31
Open primaries have undercut the power of the two main parties too. bemildred Mar 2016 #35
models work until the situation changes and the past is no longer a predictor of the future egold2604 Mar 2016 #5
and in knowing basics like how the Margin of Error is greater in a small poll size and CTyankee Mar 2016 #12
then the model must be adapted to the current situation and that is difficult... CTyankee Mar 2016 #14
The models are built by people who understand statistics then turned over to interns egold2604 Mar 2016 #26
I am no statistician (fine arts major!) but I mentioned outliers upthread which of CTyankee Mar 2016 #29
Better yet, HOW EVERY BODY FAILED TO PREDICT TRUMP. Nitram Mar 2016 #10
Yea, but not everyone makes their living off of being a political prophet. Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #11
I'm sure you are right, he seized the opportunity given his ego and power...he thinks CTyankee Mar 2016 #20
He saw an opportunity and did well with it for that period of time. I posted the OP I felt Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #23
Caught up in the wonky numbers...total math genius..but... KoKo Mar 2016 #22
People are under a great deal of stress and they can react in many ways, it seemed clear Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #24
Very Interesting...Thanks for Posting... KoKo Mar 2016 #21
Nostradamus couldn't have predicted Trump Relentless Liberal Mar 2016 #25
88% of statistics are made up ian cameron dromore Mar 2016 #28
"Lies, damn Lies, and statitics." CTyankee Mar 2016 #30
How to Lie with Statistics bemildred Mar 2016 #32
ep. You can phrase the question carefully and deviously...got that... CTyankee Mar 2016 #33
Very popular. bemildred Mar 2016 #34
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