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Response to Kolesar (Original post)

Mon Jul 22, 2013, 09:28 AM

4. GDP Growth For The Current Quarter

Is expected to come in at a putrid 1%. Some are claiming that the 4th quarter should show more growth but I don't see where that will come from. Indeed, because of the sequester, I have been saying since it was allowed to kick in on March 1st that in the 4th quarter we would likely see the economy slip into recession during the holiday season. I see no reason to adjust my March prediction. Bernanke has been sending out alarms and the recently completed G20 summit in Russia put out a message of deficit spending to stimulate the world economies so Obama has plenty of tailwind for taking this message out into the country. A new fiscal year starts October 1st and while both houses have passed a budget the two chambers have not agreed to meet to work out the differences. Since Congress will soon go into recess until after Labor Day there will only be 3 weeks to come up with something or face a government shutdown. Normally Congress would pass a continuing resolution to keep the government running and the House could well do that because that would keep the sequester in place, something the President has promised to veto, so a shutdown is more likely than with the recent artificial "cliff" conditions. The other half of the one-two punch is the debt ceiling that will be hit at the same time. How much will Congress dither when staring in the face of a recession? My guess is aplenty.

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Arrow 38 replies Author Time Post
Kolesar Jul 2013 OP
Doctor_J Jul 2013 #1
Safetykitten Jul 2013 #2
JoePhilly Jul 2013 #3
geek tragedy Jul 2013 #10
matthews Jul 2013 #11
geek tragedy Jul 2013 #13
matthews Jul 2013 #17
geek tragedy Jul 2013 #18
matthews Jul 2013 #20
geek tragedy Jul 2013 #21
matthews Jul 2013 #23
woo me with science Jul 2013 #26
Doctor_J Jul 2013 #24
matthews Jul 2013 #25
LineReply GDP Growth For The Current Quarter
DallasNE Jul 2013 #4
matthews Jul 2013 #12
DallasNE Jul 2013 #16
matthews Jul 2013 #19
Arctic Dave Jul 2013 #5
forestpath Jul 2013 #9
dmosh42 Jul 2013 #6
Doctor_J Jul 2013 #7
dmosh42 Jul 2013 #8
matthews Jul 2013 #14
Doctor_J Jul 2013 #15
matthews Jul 2013 #22
Kolesar Jul 2013 #27
matthews Jul 2013 #29
Kolesar Jul 2013 #30
matthews Jul 2013 #32
Kolesar Jul 2013 #33
matthews Jul 2013 #36
matthews Jul 2013 #38
matthews Jul 2013 #34
Kolesar Jul 2013 #28
matthews Jul 2013 #31
Kolesar Jul 2013 #35
matthews Jul 2013 #37
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