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Response to The Magistrate (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 19, 2012, 01:14 PM

22. Could economics play a part? In 1993 we were coming out of one recession, ...


in 2000 we were at the end of the Clinton boom, even African American Unemployment was dropping in the late 1990s. Thus the best way to drop gun deaths is to get the economy going, especially among low income groups.

On the other hand, Automobile usage, while affected by the overall economy, has DROPPED due to the high price of Gasoline.

While the 1991 recession was technically over in 8 months, unemployment continue to raise till June 1992, and contributed to Clinton's election that year:


The 1991 Recession lead to RIOTS in Britain:

In the United Kingdom, there was a significant wave of rioting at the height of the recession in 1991 and 1992, with unemployment and social discontent being seen as major factors. Areas affected including Handsworth in Birmingham, Blackbird Leys in Oxford, Kates Hill in Dudley, Meadow Well on Tyneside, Ely in Cardiff and Hartcliffe in Bristol


Recovery from a recession has changed since 1980. while the 1981 recession followed the course of most post WWII recessions, the 1980 Recession set a pattern that has been followed by every other recession since 1980 (Except for the 1981 recession), that included a very slow recovery.


Crime rate is up, for the first time in 20 years (No mention that it is the worse recession since the Great Depression):

Comment in 2001, before the recent spike in violent crime (i.e. Crime goes up in recessions, through it seems to be a "Lag indicator" like unemployment, which shows how the economy was doing 12-18 months before):

“This is actually a pretty significant drop, which is fascinating because we’d normally expect crime to go up when we’re in an economic downturn,”

The US Murder rate climbed in the 1960s, but jumped and peaked after oil start to rise around 1970and continue during the 1973 Recession AND the 1973 Oil Embargo, the resumed its decline till 1979 and the 1979 Iran Oil Crisis followed by the 1980 recession. Then declined till the hard times under Bush I (and the resulting 1990 recession), and a slow decline every since. Notice the decline reversed during the oil crisis of 1970-1973 (1970 was when oil start to go up from about 25 cents a gallon to 35 cents a gallon, it then jumped to 75 cents a gallon after the 1973 oil embargo). This increase continued under the "Recovery" from the 1973 Recession, then reversed and went into decline till 1979 oil crisis and the 1980 and 1981 Recessions. The murder rate then resumed its decline till the 1990 recession. Notice the reversal of the decline occurred as the recession was in the recovery phase, or the phase when the economy is no longer going down, but unemployment is still going up. It is when Unemployment starts to decline that the murder rate starts to go down.


Tough economic times leads to depression and thoughts of suicide AND a demand for radical action to solve the problem (Which includes acts of violence), while auto use, to to lack of funds decline. Thus the reason for the decline in auto deaths and the increase in firearms deaths may not be anything more then economics.

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Tommy_Carcetti Dec 2012 OP
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bongbong Dec 2012 #28
FailureToCommunicate Dec 2012 #34
LineLineLineReply Could economics play a part? In 1993 we were coming out of one recession, ...
happyslug Dec 2012 #22
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happyslug Dec 2012 #36
onehandle Dec 2012 #4
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