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leveymg

(36,418 posts)
13. That's the "Beirut Model", one outcome. Another is wholesale "ethnic cleansing," but to where?
Fri Dec 7, 2012, 05:01 PM
Dec 2012

We may see a polyglot of outcomes across what was once Syria. No doubt, the Kurds will get their autonomous area on the border with Turkey, which promises decades of further conflict there.

The Sunni will simply take over most of the coastal and southern cities, driving out minorities. Most of the Christians will likely emigrate. The Shi'ia, perhaps, the best some of them can hope for is some sort of heavily armed ethnic enclave in the area in the coastal hill country where they originated.

Damascus will probably come under some sort of UN protectorate for a while. That may be delayed for quite a while as the various Salafist, nationalist, and al Qaeda factions wage their own fraticidal war of all-against-all for control over real estate and institutions in the successor regime, which will be anything but democratic in character. Another fractionated, failed state. We did it again.

The net result to this whole thing was to remove another targeted regime, as mapped out in the 1996 Clean Break regime change plan. On to Tehran. See, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_for_Securing_the_Realm

Syria as it was:

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Rebels circle Damascus ai...»Reply #13