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progree

(10,901 posts)

19. But a much smaller sample size. That's the tradeoff. But I guess we're going to have to leave it

Reply to peppertree (Reply #17)

Fri Jul 2, 2021, 04:32 PM

Jul 2021

there. I'll stick with the consensus of economists and BLS and my own common sense when looking at the tables in #16 (edit) and the +/- 120,000 vs. +/- 300,000 sampling error intervals on which better represents the month-to-month changes.

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U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June as labor market showed renewed strength [View all] mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 OP

From the source, the BLS report: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #1

Thanks for post. riversedge Jul 2021 #5

Though it's worth noting that employment was down slightly (-18,000) on a seasonally adjusted basis peppertree Jul 2021 #10

Both numbers are seasonally adjusted -- see downthread for all that /nt progree Jul 2021 #20

That's Huge! COL Mustard Jul 2021 #2

On this day, one year ago: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #3

Additional links: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #4

Sorry BumRushDaShow Jul 2021 #6

Build back better! ffr Jul 2021 #7

The key jobs day takeaway: Higher wages work. mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #8

Employment dropped by 18,000 in June, according to the BLS: Anomaly of the month progree Jul 2021 #9

Also, the Household Survey is seasonally adjusted peppertree Jul 2021 #11

The Establishment Survey (and the payroll job numbers) are seasonally adjusted too progree Jul 2021 #12

Well, sure: Those are adjusted Junes and Septembers. peppertree Jul 2021 #13

I still maintain that the Establishment survey payroll jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted progree Jul 2021 #14

You're right: They both are. But my point was that the summer seasonality in the data is undeniable peppertree Jul 2021 #15

Of course there is seasonality in the unadjusted numbers. progree Jul 2021 #18

Side by side: monthly changes in Payroll jobs and Employment numbers - progree Jul 2021 #16

That's because the Household data include farm payrolls, whereas the Establishment does not peppertree Jul 2021 #17

But a much smaller sample size. That's the tradeoff. But I guess we're going to have to leave it progree Jul 2021 #19

The Farm Labor Survey mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #21

The mind-numbing rant, based on a version posted on the first Friday in September 2016: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #22

The Churn In The Workforce DallasNE Jul 2021 #23

K&R ck4829 Jul 2021 #24

Building Back Better! oasis Jul 2021 #25

Links to earlier reports: mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2021 #26