HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » September jobs report: US... » Reply #15

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 2, 2020, 12:32 PM

15. The unemployment rate drop is slowing down, only down 0.5 percentage points from August

and the drop would have been even less (i.e. the unemployment rate would be even higher) if the labor force participation rate had not dropped by 0.3 percentage points as it did in September.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

695,000 people left the labor force in September and are not counted in the unemployment rate.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

I'm not surprised that the unemployment rate skyrocketed when the economy was locked down by government mandate, and that the UR rapidly dropped when the economy was opened up for the most part again.

The real test is how long will it take for the UR to get back to the 4.7% level that it was in January 2017 when Obama left office, a level that is 3.2 percentage points lower than it is now at 7.9%. (or back down even further to the February 2020 3.5% UR). I knew the economy would snap back to 80% or 90% of its former level, the worry is how long it takes -- how many years? to get back to 100% of where it was.

In January 2017, when Obama left office, the employment to population ratio was 59.9%. It's now 56.6%, a 3.3 percentage point drop. It has improved only 5.3 percentage points from it's low point in April (but it is up only 2.0 percentage points from 3 months ago and up only 0.1 percentage points over last month) (Edited to correct big errors in the last sentence)
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 32 replies Author Time Post
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 OP
mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2020 #1
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 #4
machI Oct 2020 #2
moose65 Oct 2020 #3
progree Oct 2020 #9
Igel Oct 2020 #19
mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2020 #5
progree Oct 2020 #6
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 #7
progree Oct 2020 #11
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 #12
mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2020 #8
mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2020 #10
progree Oct 2020 #13
mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2020 #14
LineLineReply The unemployment rate drop is slowing down, only down 0.5 percentage points from August
progree Oct 2020 #15
progree Oct 2020 #16
progree Oct 2020 #17
progree Oct 2020 #18
progree Oct 2020 #20
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 #21
progree Oct 2020 #22
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #23
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 #24
progree Oct 2020 #25
BumRushDaShow Oct 2020 #26
ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #27
progree Oct 2020 #28
ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #29
progree Oct 2020 #30
DrToast Oct 2020 #31
ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #32
Please login to view edit histories.