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Response to former9thward (Reply #2)

Mon Aug 3, 2020, 07:39 PM

5. Everyone will get the virus.

Two or three million will die. Worse, about twenty to forty percent of the population will effectively get the virus at the same time, toward the end of its explosive growth curve, and several tens of millions will need hospitalization. But there are only less than a million hospital rooms in the US, much less people to staff them, so many more will die who might have lived. (This is what the whole "flattening the curve" thing was always meant to avoid.)

It will happen with great suddenness, going from manageable to overwhelming within the space of a week in much of the country.

That's the bad situation. It's always been the bad situation to fear; the first researchers in China who established its ferocious transmissibility and death rate extrapolated it back in January. It's always been there for anybody familiar with the math to read. And it could have been avoided, but it wasn't, and our window for avoiding it is shrinking while the drama of what we will have to do to stop it is increasing daily.

Personally, I think if the schools are reopened that will be the end of any chance of containing it. It will roll over us like an avalanche leaving the survivors to pick up the pieces and figure how to carry on.

That's what Dr. Fauci is talking about.

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Arrow 28 replies Author Time Post
riversedge Aug 3 OP
louis-t Aug 3 #1
In_The_Wind Aug 3 #4
iluvtennis Aug 3 #15
former9thward Aug 3 #2
LineLineReply Everyone will get the virus.
localroger Aug 3 #5
Mr. Evil Aug 3 #12
appalachiablue Aug 3 #19
Mr. Evil Aug 3 #21
former9thward Aug 3 #20
localroger Aug 4 #24
brewens Aug 3 #3
Midnight Writer Aug 3 #6
Steelrolled Aug 3 #11
regnaD kciN Aug 3 #7
BumRushDaShow Aug 3 #8
I_UndergroundPanther Aug 3 #9
Docreed2003 Aug 3 #10
cloudythescribbler Aug 3 #13
Illumination Aug 3 #14
PSPS Aug 3 #16
Illumination Aug 5 #25
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 3 #18
NickB79 Aug 6 #26
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 6 #27
tclambert Aug 3 #17
BadgerKid Aug 3 #22
Javaman Aug 3 #23
Kaleva Aug 6 #28
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