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Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Sun Dec 8, 2019, 10:57 AM

6. The speech never held

Stanley R. Sloan wanted to present a range of possible scenarios. Here is the darkest one:
... This scenario presents a much darker future. In it, the United States essentially abandons its transatlantic commitments and leadership roles. The European allies fall into disputes about how to maintain their security and provide new leadership. Such a scenario could begin with the reelection of Donald Trump.

In this hypothetical scenario, Trump continues the process of abandoning US international leadership and decides to remove all US forces from Europe. Trump tweets that he and Vladimir Putin have agreed that such a move would promote peace and security in Europe. In response, European allies discuss creating strong, integrated European defense structures to replace the transatlantic NATO one.

But they find it too challenging politically and financially. Even the overwhelming cost estimate projected in 2019 by the IISS for the EU members to create a defense system as capable as that of NATO turns out to be overly optimistic. Several member countries suggest that the EU should follow the US lead and sign a peaceful relations accord with Russia, in which both sides pledge to take no aggressive actions against the other. Even though some commentators immediately label this »the 21st century Munich,« most European governments decide they have little choice. ...


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